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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard J. Byrd who wrote (5453)	2/4/1999 8:33:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Richard: I am glad you like the thread, thanks! However, I don't recall ANY post from the regulars that predicted a 2K point drop, much less a "substantial number". Extended drops have been included in the possibilities I am sure, but that is a different all together. As, I said in my previous response, there is a leaning by the majority from time to time, in one direction or the other, but no extreme predictions, except maybe in jest. Now, some of the glue sniffing velcro wearing EWavers on the BK thread have thrown out some pretty strong numbers, as of late. And I guess that if they would grace the MDA thread a little more often we would have those predictions on here as well. Well, until they decide to post on MDA on a more regular basis we will be without...<g> Regards, LG

To: Richard J. Byrd who wrote (5453)	2/4/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Dick, >>>>> My point is that for ten years, every prediction of market collapse has been drastically wrong. Buying heavily at every dip for ten years would have brought big profits. Therefore when I see the substantial number of posts on the thread that predict a 2,000 point drop when we lose 200-300 points, I just have to remember how many times I've heard these predictions in the past and every one has been wrong. <<<<<< I presume your comment is more from a general point of view, and not addressed specificly to this thread, since there really are not that many extreme forcasts specifically on this thread. I have only been trading for 2 years so I was not one calling for a BK 10 years ago. I guess the point that you are making is that there has been many forcasts in the past 10 years for a market collapse which have been wrong. Well that comment is totally correct. However, from a point of logic, that same comment should not be used to justify that a bull market will continue. I have noticed that many BULLS use that arguement. Sooner or later the extreme bears will be right, however their repeated incorrect calls of a market collapse is not an analytical justification that a BULL market will continue either. I think the better way to approach it is from a statistical perspective, and that is to determine the average length of time between BEAR MARKETS. The last strong bear market I am aware of is back in the 70's, then there was a weaker but very quick one in 87. Has anyone done a study as to the average length of time between bear markets. Whatever the answer is, is not to say for certain either but just a more logical way to view it. I dont know exactly when the next bear market will happen, but Im certain there will be one in the future, whenever it happens. During the long drawn out bear market of 1920/1930's, I wouldnt be surprised that the BEARS were saying the same about the BULLs, that how often the BULLs were wrong, and used that as justification that the bear market would continue. Just playing "DEVIL's ADVOCATE" seeya