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To: Vendit™ who wrote (4388)	2/5/1999 11:57:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 41369

Vendit: Market Analysis. ( home grown, so don't go out laying any cash out for what I have to say, gg ). So what is going on? Few hypotheses and thoughts Market is down because…. -No :1 reason: Interest rates have been going up. Possible Fed tightening which will ditch the economy for a while. How is this possible in the middle of no inflation? My hypothesis is that “ we may be too good for our own good”. In other words we ( R.Reagan cum tax cuts 1980 ) have created a monstrous “ trickle down economy “ ( don't laugh ). An economy that nobody in the last 50 years from Keynes on down foresaw. Because Keynes and others were wrong in predicting what stimulates the economy ( low taxes , savings etc., people are more willing to work hard for their pocketbook; i.e. “The Republican model) and what kills it ( high taxes, little disposable income, people don't want to work for Uncle Sam , high Government debt; “ the “ Democratic model , with it's revolutionary assets –transfer- Ponzi -schemes :“ Delano Roosevelt's Social Security and Johnson's Medicare; were granny and grandpa get card blanche to charge their bills to their little unborn grandchildren Johnny and Sue's VISA $ MASTER Credit cards resulting in a trillion and a half dollars National Debt and who have been unwilling until 1998 to even make their monthly payments , ergo a yearly “ budget deficit “ until now ). -So now that since 1980 we get to invest our own hard earned money, ( surprise surprise gg ) we have this monster 8 year old bull market THAT FEW PEOPLE PREDICATED and in fact most people in th e80s laughed at !! - Surprise surprise. This bull market is running RIGHT OVER world recessions in Asia, Russia, Latin America. A 5.4% GDP ( National wealth ) growth!!! The strongest in memory. Even as the Merrill Lynch pundits were crying gloom and doom! -So what is happening now? AGreenspan, afraid that we were cooling off last Oct lowered even further interest rates hoping to bail out all of these failing countries' economies so that they can pay off Alan G's banker friends: Citicorp, Long Term Management Fund, etc. Well those countries are still down. Instead what we have is consumers MADLY borrowing money to spend in addition to their salaries to spend on the stock market to save themselves in old age. We all know our money is gone to grandparents so we got to RAPIDLY develop our own to pay for hugely expensive heart, cancer and orthopedic therapies at age 70. So we buy, buy , buy. The hell with valuations. We look at 1000% growth rates instead with proportionate PEs. - I think some smart people are smelling a rat. ( There is no conspiracy here. Just the market at work ). So, we were up big time: some profit taking; no more earnings news to drive it further up; The music has stopped playing “. Big sell off. Were do we go from here? I think we need to wait for this sell off to get out of the way. After valuations become a little more attractive ( and here , “ beauty is in the eyes of the beholder “ ), the bull market will continue. TA