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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Terry Whitman who wrote (5464)2/4/1999 11:14:00 PM
From: StockOperator  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 99985
 
Oh the bears are excited tonight. Old bulls are converting left and right. They even got GroundZero with today's move. Is this the beginning of the big kahuna? Could be. But then again, I don't believe one days trading is enough to accurately make that call. Let me say there were many divergences today. And although today's drop, especially in the NAZ, was significant, most of the damage was done to stocks that have made huge moves in the past weeks. CSCO down almost $6 today to $105 (January's low - $89). DELL down $5.50 today to $102 (January's low $73). The weekly lows for these stocks are STILL higher than last week. The trannies on the back of the airlines closed positive today. While in the DOW (off 63) was greatly affected by the $6 drop in IBM, $3.5 in AT&T, and $2.5 drop in GM. AT&T closed at $91 (January's low $76) GM closed at $87 (January's low $69). The same thing applies to the internets. Let me first of all point out that many of those 2nd tier internets made some pretty significant moves ONSL, BAMM, CYCH, CYSP, CNKT, all popped today with companies like MZON trading intraday between $14-24. YHOO down $21 today, yesterday it was up $35. AMZN down almost $8, yesterday up $16. Even the small cap market which is often overlooked because companies are so small, WCAP, PQT, GEND, VSNR, GEND have already made big moves or are beginning to stir.

I make these points because there are many divergences and I think you have to look at one day's worth of trading in the context of the bigger picture. That doesn't mean we're home free. Or does it imply that this is not the beginning of something much bigger. The VIX today continued to push higher, which doesn't bode well for the market. Interest rates also are creeping higher (could be the real killer). But still I've learned the hard way that its how stocks close at the end of the week relative to their long term trend thats important.

Like I said yesterday being in the market now (long or short) offers the greatest consequences to investors.

Good luck trading.

SO



To: Terry Whitman who wrote (5464)2/4/1999 11:22:00 PM
From: HairBall  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
Terry Whitman: Barton Biggs of Morgan Stanley said on CNN Moneyline Wednesday night, that on average every three years there is a significant correction of the 20% are greater.

Regards,
LG