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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Clarke who wrote (5941)	2/5/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: Bill Zeman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78462

Regarding the oil industry: I know a bit about it, and IMHO now is not the time to buy. Nobody projects oil to get over 13-14$/barrel b4 Y2K, most aim lower and most say there will be no sustained recovery in price for at least 2 or 3 years. This is a once or twice a century severe problem with the oil glut. Saudi Arabia has HUGE debt problems and so they continue to pump as much oil, as they can. This is why OPEC can not seem to come to an agreement on lowering production. Saudi Arabia is the biggest producer and is generally the leader of OPEC as well as sporting the 2 biggest religious holy cities of Mecca and Medina. For this reason oil stocks will not have a sustained rally for quite some time. With the economies of Asia, Russia and now Brazil tanking, the once bright future oil consuming prospects of the the 3rd world are now looking dim. With more weak economies probably to follow, it could be a long time until sustained demand for oil picks up. Note how long Japan has been in recession/depression. Do we hear one decade, maybe 2? I am looking to buy oil in 2001 or so, unless the world economy looks even worse than now. In the mean time I expect a lot of weak oil producers/drillers/servicers to go under as well as a lot of consolidation. Hope this helps. Bill Z

To: James Clarke who wrote (5941)	2/7/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Respond to of 78462

Oil vs Agriculture: Recently I noted, on a recent dip in oil prices, that everyone on CNBC was touting oil stocks as the perfect contrarian play. This ain't the stuff bottoms are made of, IMO. No one mentioned a contrary play in agriculture..this is decidedly more bottom-like, but I'm not making a call just observations. BTW, Jim, Why are there no farmland REIT's?