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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (38198)	2/5/1999 1:44:00 AM
From: KeepItSimple	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

>I'm convinced they've taken the category for good. William, the online auction "world" is less than a year old, and you're already calling the winner 10 years in the future? Doesn't it ever occur to you that if Ebay could come out of the blue and establish dominance in a few months, that someone else could come out of the blue and eat their lunch? I read something recently that is very true. The equities markets are now replacing venture capital firms. The only problem is that investors probably don't know that venture capital firms expect to lose their entire investment 9 out of 10 times, because they'll make a homerun on that 1 time. Retail investors simply dont understand that they have a much better chance of losing it all than striking it rich. At least in the longterm.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (38198)	2/5/1999 3:23:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

William: "Interesting" is one word to describe the new Nasdaq-Amex e-commerce index. But "sign of a top" might be more accurate. As you may know, past new sector indexes have shown remarkable timing at marking the top: The Disk Drive Index is one, and the Computer Hardware Index is another. I personally was surprised to see you turned bullish so quickly, on the basis of a) your conference visit, and b) the volume with the bounce up two days ago (was this just an excuse to get in)? Sometimes knowing when to walk away from the table a winner is the smartest thing. The fundamentals could continue to improve, but once a mania passes, stocks tend to correct downward, with overkill on the downside before a recovery to trade on more conventional valuations. $10B for e-bay? Surely you jest.

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (38198)	2/5/1999 6:38:00 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Respond to of 164684

<< Another interesting development: biz.yahoo.com >> William- that is interesting. I'd love to see them develop a bus-to-bus ecommerce index to go along with it. Victor