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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mazama who wrote (6378)	2/5/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: Patric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

Mazama-- Here's my 2 cents worth. Ciena the last few months has been an example of the adage that the market tends to over-react to bad news (as it over-reacts to good news). Considering that this is a profitable company with the leading (albeit apparently not proprietary) technology (DWDM) in a hot industry (telecommunications), it was a sad joke that the stock traded down to the single digits (ouch! I kick myself when I think that I didn't round up some cash to get some of those ultra-cheap shares), but that's the way Mr. Market often behaves. Because the forecasts and whisper numbers have projected a loss for CIEN this quarter, the price has hovered down in the mid-teens most of the quarter, occasionally spiking up on the repeated premature merger rumors. Now, if you follow the thread back a few days or so, at least one analyst is projecting a profit for the quarter, possibly more than a nominal one. With investors (I am talking the big guys, not you or I) looking at Ciena as a profitable telecom company again (rather than as the victim of a failed merger effort), we are in the middle of a trading range that probably extends from the low 20's to the low 30's, as evidenced by the strong steady upward movement on good volume, something we haven't seen since the good old pre-merger days. Of course it all depends on the earnings announcement--a negative figure and we're back to the mid-teens at least. A really good number could move the price more or less permanently above 30. JMHO #B~}>