To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (45791 ) 2/5/1999 10:49:00 AM From: Knighty Tin Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
Nadine, There is nothing wrong with services. The problem is that they are a very easy area to fudge revenues and eps. IBM has made this an art. Note that the service area grew at rates that are much higher than any other part of Compaq's business and way beyond any growth rates DEC and Tandem have been able to achieve. Is CPQ mgt. just that much better six months later? Or are they pulling the IBM trick of taking down service contracts aggressively and recognizing multi-year revenues very early in the life of the contract? I suspect it is a combo of these two factors that account for the growth. And, since CPQ has always been known as a customer service disaster in its traditional businesses, I suspect that the bigger portion of the growth pie is aggressive accounting. Yes, CPQ stock has gone up. Earnings have gone negative. They lost nearly $2 a share last year. Even excluding the one-time flim-flam, the year was a disaster. The last quarter, so highly touted and, IMHO, with the quality of earnings extremely shaky (channel stuffing, huge receivables growth, services growth), was flat with a year ago. Every quarter was down until what I consider a bogus flat quarter in Dec. So, I was 100% right on the co. BTW, I have bought puts three times during the period you mention. The first time, they expired worthless and I caught a lot of crap from Steve. The second time, I made a 200% profit and Steve heard his Mother calling and had to leave the thread. <G> This is the 3rd time. So, though the fluff stock has indeed gone up while I hated it, I have been right so far on playing this co's long good bye. MB