To: Venkie who wrote (95181 ) 2/5/1999 12:42:00 PM From: Jake0302 Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Thread - what do we expect next week as we head into earnings? In all, it is of course disappointing. Especially the over 10 point swing from our highs on monday. But, when you look at a dell chart for the last month, it actually fits into a pattern of ups and downs. The drive from 90 to 108 was a huge surge, now we are dipping. My question is, will we get a drive up when we approach earnings?? I personally think we will. I am still looking for 110-112 by earnings. I think we are bouncing now. Everyone on the street knows that this stock has a suprise coming on Feb 16. Here's some background on Dell from the optioninvestor newsletter, which is highly recommended (www.optioninvestor.com) Dell is the largest direct sales PC manufacturer in the world, listed at 125th in the Fortune-500 and 343rd in the Global-500 of top companies, with $16.8 billion in sales over the last 4 quarters. Dell has consistently outperformed any other major stock for price performance. Dell is up +1200% in the last five years and has split their stock five times in the last three years, two times in 1998 alone. Dell is a low price, high margin producer because it has only 6 days of inventory and doesn't have to pay its suppliers (some who manufacture in Asia) until 8 days later. Since Dell gets paid before it manufactures a box, they have a huge cash float—can you say "83% return on equity?" In late December, they announced a multi-year marketing deal with AOL to place AOL on all Dell desktops. In its server business, Dell managed a 62% year over year sequential revenue growth. With over 200 product and service awards earned during 1998, Dell has not forgotten its manufacturing and marketing prowess Play Description This is the Dell we used to know, having lit up investor's radar screens in bright green. Volume was huge all week long with a whopping 36 million shares traded on Friday. With fund managers trying to find a home for the record- breaking January 401K cash infusion, Dell is only too happy to provide warm shelter as the fourth largest weighted stock in the NASDAQ 100. Even daytraders are back in anticipation of earnings. With the success of Microsoft, and heck, even Gateway earnings, we expect earnings from Dell to be equally great. Dell is nearing split range again and has enough shares authorized for another 2:1 split, but it's not there quite yet; maybe by earnings. We'll keep an eye on it. Earnings release is scheduled Tues., February 16, after the close. Until then, we expect a day or two of profit taking to set in, given the steep run-up. Dip buying is encouraged, but confirm upward market movement first. Update Hey, IBM and Compaq -- don't look over your shoulder! World-wide PC sales growth was anticipated at 12% for the fourth quarter, but a new study shows growth at 15%, with Dell rapidly closing in on IBM's #2 position. Compaq is still #1, but is not enjoying Dell's growth rate. Dell, again, took top honors in Technology Business Research Inc.'s recent quarterly Corporate IT Buying Behavior and Customer Satisfaction Study in all 3 platforms: workstations, PCs and notebooks.