Upbeat after the meeting: the tonic -- and bourbon and wine -- I needed
Hi, Everyone,
I just got home about 3 hours ago, and spent most of the time since wading though almost 220 new SI posts since I left Wednesday. And except for the 4 Yahoo links (to posts by Bigcue and nn98), I haven't tackled the 85 new posts there yet. Because I will be leaving town tomorrow morning for the weekend, and because I need more time to let the events of yesterday finish distilling in my mind, I will not try to give much of a report tonight. Perhaps I will have something of substance to offer Monday. For now, just a few comments.
My impression from reading the 200+ posts tonight is (1) I'm glad I went, if only so I didn't have to suffer the anxiety of waiting and wondering(!), and (2) the reports of the meeting by I.N. Vestor, Mark Johnson, Sig, Pallisard, Bigcue, and nn98 are on the money in spirit and detail. I think, though, that for me, MHS's remark that "I think they did and have sent a ton of signals that they are confident -- but will not be hurried" summarizes the whole event quite nicely.
For now, I will add only my impression that their confidence seems well-founded because they seem to be making substantial tangible progress in two important regards: R&D and production. I was impressed by the patent presentation (216 patents issued, 16 allowed, 135 pending, 85 in preparation, and 147 disclosures) as evidence of ongoing R&D success. For many reasons, this seems essential for insuring the long-term success of the company.
More important for immediate purposes, I was also impressed by Lev's "video" show featuring the production plant in NI. It was actually a series of video clips presented as a slide-show which Lev narrated. The presentation broke the production process down into about a dozen sections, beginning with the various steps in the preparation of the "goo" out of the raw materials, progressing through the steps of coating, lamination, attaching of electrodes, cutting, and so forth, and ending with the packaging, quarantining, and testing of the cell. Throughout the video Lev emphasized automation and quality control. The value of the video for me was three-fold.
First, it was interesting to hear Lev talk about each aspect of the process, including the problems associated with each. He was informative (given it was a lay audience and given the necessity of guarding secrets), and he was clearly proud of what has been achieved.
Second, it was interesting to be able to see the equipment associated with each aspect of the production process. I got a better feel for the scale of the operation, the complexity of getting all the elements of the process synchronized, the necessity of working out one little problem after another, and so forth. Lev commented at one point that the problem now was to "bring the plant into balance," which I though was a perfectly apt way of describing the situation. It was last September, I believe, when he made his comment about having all the different components running, but not yet running as an integrated whole without bottlenecks. Seeing the video gave me a much better sense of what was involved, and how time-consuming the debugging, integrating and fine-tuning of all the component parts would inevitably be. I always suspected this was the case -- otherwise somebody would have already done it -- but seeing the video suggests to me just how difficult it is, and how much difficulty any competitor will also face.
Third, I have the distinct impression that once perfected, the process will knock out cells like hotcakes, implying a high volume of production at low unit cost. Low unit costs are essential if Valence is to fend off competitors.
In brief, I think Lev and company have good reason to send "a ton of signals that they are confident -- but will not be hurried." The patents, the video, and the demeanor of Lev, Shugart, and Berg all suggested that they have confidence in what they are doing and that they expect to succeed.
Well, enough for tonight. There is much more to report regarding both the status and progress of Valence and our visit. For now, let me just mention a couple of things. First, it is important to note that there were at least 16 of us SI and Yahoo people there -- and that is only the people around the table at the Sunset Cafe before the meeting. I was kinda stunned when I walked in! Moreover, there were at least 4 other readers of this thread who spoke to me before, during, and after the meeting. (And I should apologize to some of them for my directions which got them oh so close -- but not quite -- to Valence. Bad memory, I guess... Fortunately, they made it -- but were there any others who didn't? I hate to think about it.) Anyway, the point is that there are many sources of information about the meeting, and I hope to see their posts soon. I think the event was complex enough to benefit from everyone's perspective. We were very lucky to have such a large turnout. The story that finally emerges after we talk through all the details ought to be reasonably accurate and comprehensive.
Second, I am very glad I went to the meeting because it was a chance to meet so many of us in person. Thank you everyone for being there. It was great fun for me; I enjoyed every minute of it. We got a chance to talk about Valence and all sorts of things, and I got the chance to drink a hellova lot during a long evening of conversation. I was very impressed with us as a group of intelligent, informed, and thoughtful individuals. I will read everyone's posts with a whole new appreciation. I was happy to get to spend quite a bit of time with a number of people, but alas, I did not get to spend nearly enough time with everyone. Inevitable with so many of us and so little time, I suppose, but still regrettable. I look forward to remedying this next year -- when we can go to a really expensive bar and dine on really expensive steak!
Regards, lws |
