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Biotech / Medical : Cell Genesys (CEGE) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (567)	2/5/1999 4:41:00 PM
From: ted	Respond to of 1298

Thanks for the link. That is a good discussion over there about vectors. I'm going to have to look further into that Wilson vector - it looks interesting. I have spent a lot of time following tgen's progress in aav tech. and can say that one of their main scientist/collaborators has conceded that aav/adenovirus hybrids are where it's really at for efficient gene transfer.

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (567)	2/5/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 1298

Mike, Anyway, so how does a person try and throw some darts at these gene therapy oriented companies? Well, I am slowly coming to the conclusion, sickening as it is, that the market knows more than I do. ARIA was a five dollar stock last spring...now it is below $2. CEGE was a three dollar stock just a few months ago, now it is near $7. I think it is giving the market much too much credit to assume that this is a verdict on their respective technologies. It may be more significant that CEGE has a nice chunk of ABGX, and ARIA has a floorless. (I own a little CEGE, and I might re-enter ARIA in a small way at some point - I sold after the floorless was announced). Peter

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (567)	2/5/1999 5:46:00 PM
From: Dan Spillane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1298

I've looked at the other companies you guys mentioned in this folder, based on my seven criteria. Summarily, the reason to own Cell Genesys instead of something else has to do with the difference between "playing around" and making a real business out of gene therapy. Wall Street doesn't reward playing around, at least in the long run. There is also an eighth criteria I didn't mention (but added below), which is "has analyst coverage". This CEGE has, no doubt because it meets the seven criteria I list. Evaluate for yourself all the items I suggest. When I did this, it made me want to buy more Cell Genesys; I'm happy to discuss each of these with regard to other possible investments: (revised) Criteria for evaluating biotech investments: 1) Overall, relative market capitalization given prospects. Thus, if there are a few gene therapy companies trading for peanuts, and at the same time investors will pay huge sums for hundreds of Internet stocks, I see opportunity (potential for high demand but small supply of shares). 2) Partnerships. 3) Milestones, and milestone payments. Quality of milestones -- are they announcing results from a test tube, or from clinical trials? 4) Breadth and applicability of technology; potential for revolutionary product introductions. 5) Track record (how long a company has been doing work in an area). 6) Balance sheet. Are they strapped for cash? 7) Buyout potential, given all of the above. 8) Analyst coverage.