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To: Lucretius who wrote (7188)	2/5/1999 6:55:00 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 14427

LT, As one of your harsher critics last weekend I would like to say that so far it looks to me like the US markets are at the beginning of a down leg even though your crash call as of this minute looks wrong. Need to see further confirmation immediately next week with continued selling to have me convinced we at the start of a correction phase. Should we rebound big Monday, it will be obvious your "crash" call was inaccurate or premature at best. imo,Michael

To: Lucretius who wrote (7188)	2/5/1999 9:04:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Got out of the option business. Sticking with stocks these days 'cause I can hold them forever. <H>

To: Lucretius who wrote (7188)	2/7/1999 10:01:00 AM
From: 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Luc, my preconditions for crash watch were not met. There was no large cap sell-off to speak of. Fear just doesn't wake up one morning and tell everyone to sell; it needs to be intensified and that is not happening right now. So, we probably bounce up early this week and consolidate sideways. If we eventually break down out of the consolidation, then a correction is likely and I will monitor for crash preconditions, but it is more probable that the market moves up out of the consolidation. If we move up tomorrow, then I will be a buyer and I will no longer be on correction watch, just consolidation watch. <g> One other point. The economy is very strong and it is doubtful that people will panic until they see the white of the eyes of a recession. This market is bathing in a drunken confidence which has caused it to be fearless and near sighted. 007