To: Paul Engel who wrote (73053 ) 2/5/1999 4:40:00 PM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
From Briefing.com but I do not agree: "Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) sent a shockwave through the chip sector yesterday when the company announced that it could see an operating loss in the first quarter due to pricing pressures... This is the same company that just a couple weeks ago declared that gross margins would improve by 10% in FY99 due to improved product mix... Company's reputation for mismanagement being reinforced by current fiasco... Street will act swiftly and mercilessly in cutting estimates and slashing ratings, as it doesn't like being misled... Regrettably, Briefing.com among those that bought the company line... And while we now must do a 180° regarding our short-term view, longer-term we still think the company is well positioned to exploit the growing demand for cheap PCs... AMD has a solid product and it has won over numerous big name clients from Intel (INTC)... And while the latter might slash prices in effort to win back those clients, Intel unlikely to reverse tide significantly... As always market will overreact to the current bad news, creating a good long-term buying opportunity for patient, risk tolerant investors... That said, it will probably take 9- to 12-months for the company to win back any confidence from the street. Big picture impact of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) announcement is that it puts into question premise that chip prices finally firming... This widely held belief was at the core of the SOX index's more than 120% run since October 8... If market begins to question pricing power of chip companies, earnings estimates and ratings will be trimmed sending momentum investors headed for the exits... And money moves out faster than it moves in... It's too early to say for certain that this is how trading will play out, as anecdotal evidence regarding demand for chips suggests that pricing conditions should hold up... But in the market, perception is often more important that reality. Surprisingly, chip equipment sector brushed off the news... But here again, if market begins to question earnings power of the chip industry, the bottom will fall out from under the high-flying chip equipment group as well."