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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/5/1999 4:55:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

Donald: Don't forget to mention the charts located at: cp-tel.net Regards, LG PS: Bowe Brown are you seeing this....?

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/5/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: S. Chiang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm also expecting a rebound early next week. Reasons: 1. A two-day tech sell-off dragged NASD to its lower trend line. It should be ripe for a rebound. 2. Money wasn't leaving the market. Instead, it just rotated to cyclical components. It will come back to the tech leaders soon. 3. OEX and SPX are both under 20-day SMA. They've never stayed under 20-day SMA for more than 3 sessions, since their lows on 10/8. I guess it's time to buy some calls and tech stocks. SC

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/5/1999 7:15:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Analysis of end of Day Closing prices and recommendations in Rubins Tulips Market - Reflex Rally in tech stocks by next week Oil, Retail and Cyclical stocks moved as expected. This is the most effective list, but validate signals. Results are relative to the SPX and move relative to the SPX - Haim Today is 02/05/99 Remember this is a computer scan only S&P Closed 1236.35 S&P Change -12.140 Recomandation Price Stoch. RSI RSI RS Change ROC% SELL SIGNAL ON CMB 76.438 79.297 56 -4 -29 BUY SIGNAL ON DK 5.875 13.043 34 3 2 SELL SIGNAL ON MXF 11.438 93.913 59 0 -10 SELL SIGNAL ON SNE 72.750 90.278 56 -3 -9 SELL SIGNAL ON ROK 45.688 91.930 57 1 -38 BUY SIGNAL ON TOY 14.438 13.475 40 2 0 SELL SIGNAL ON UNH 45.250 76.978 51 -2 -7 SELL SIGNAL ON PIXR 40.625 77.315 50 -6 -8 BUY SIGNAL ON ERC 11.500 14.103 36 2 0 CURR PREV CURR STOCH TICKER NAME CLOSE CLOSE Vol % %K %D RSI ------------------------ ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- ------- AA AA 89.500 86.688 221.176% 81.902 62.469 66.880 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE BMY BMY 126.625 130.500 111.685% 76.262 82.589 50.471 * STOCH SELL CMB CMB 76.438 77.938 63.868% 79.297 82.185 56.684 * STOCH SELL COL COL 18.000 17.625 109.405% 17.391 16.120 35.362 * STOCH BUY CUM CUM 40.875 40.375 103.896% 94.052 92.129 69.918 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE DELL DELL 100.438 102.375 202.524% 79.922 85.950 67.862 * RSI SELL DH DH 62.125 65.188 93.755% 81.961 87.611 63.442 * RSI SELL DK DK 5.875 5.750 93.255% 13.043 11.917 34.650 * STOCH BUY EGLE EGLE 3.750 3.688 189.033% 100.000 96.019 63.446 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE GP GP 71.625 69.938 141.330% 92.678 83.161 69.406 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE KSS KSS 68.000 68.750 69.333% 84.820 86.439 67.648 * RSI SELL MXF MXF 11.438 11.438 42.533% 93.913 93.967 59.264 * STOCH SELL SNE SNE 72.750 73.312 39.688% 90.278 91.411 56.052 * STOCH SELL SPLS SPLS 27.438 29.438 123.448% 70.485 77.527 47.540 * STOCH SELL ROK ROK 45.688 45.375 78.160% 91.930 91.954 57.207 * STOCH SELL TMX TMX 53.000 52.000 38.543% 92.135 92.845 63.923 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE TOY TOY 14.438 14.188 136.951% 13.475 12.693 40.292 * STOCH BUY TWA TWA 6.875 6.062 291.741% 26.650 19.461 80.416 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE UBS UBS 10.062 9.250 251.588% 91.489 89.376 75.950 * PRICE BREAKOUT ABOVE 50 DAY HIGH OF CLOSE UNH UNH 45.250 46.000 102.731% 76.978 79.721 51.294 * STOCH SELL UNP UNP 52.938 53.500 92.508% 94.172 93.388 69.977 * RSI SELL ECILF ECILF 36.250 37.000 313.628% 39.286 55.008 40.426 * VOLUME BREAKOUT 313.628 PERCENT OVER LAST 30 DAYS DIS DIS 34.250 33.125 91.364% 22.488 19.542 54.575 * STOCH BUY WDC WDC 12.875 12.625 111.819% 7.214 6.195 36.875 * STOCH BUY GTW GTW 74.000 76.500 108.536% 84.019 88.605 64.706 * RSI SELL ERC ERC 11.500 11.375 282.233% 14.103 11.645 36.927 * STOCH BUY TNT TNT 1.375 1.375 395.832% 6.897 11.157 25.064 * VOLUME BREAKOUT 395.832 PERCENT OVER LAST 30 DAYS NN NN 28.500 27.500 453.390% 6.679 14.252 36.720 * VOLUME BREAKOUT 453.390 PERCENT OVER LAST 30 DAYS JBL JBL 63.000 63.250 441.472% 19.000 25.675 35.894 * VOLUME BREAKOUT 441.472 PERCENT OVER LAST 30 DAYS TBH TBH 67.375 69.250 39.700% 70.153 75.416 48.632 * STOCH SELL Prev Curr Price Curr OFF TICKER NAME CLOSE CLOSE Change Vol % HIGH ------------------------ ------- ------- ------ ----- ---- AA AA 86.688 89.500 3% 221% 0% 30DAY HI $ AMP AMP 51.875 51.938 0% 153% 1% BMET BMET 34.438 35.688 3% 232% 13% CHV CHV 76.938 78.875 2% 246% 12% MOB MOB 85.750 88.438 3% 152% 3% MSFT MSFT 159.062 160.000 0% 200% 9% Total Companies Processed 225 OB INDICATES NEW YEARLY ON BALANCE VOLUME HIGH $ INDICATES NEW 52 WEEK HIGH PRICE ** New highs, high bases, 10+ week highs, & low base breakouts ** 52 Week \|--Base-\| 40 Name Close Change %OH High %Rng Wks Vol %V U/D ---- ----- ------ --- ---- ---- ---- --- -- --- AA 89.50 2.81 NH 89.50 No Base 25016 245% 1.3 ADBE 46.06 -0.12 9% 50.75 9% 6 9263 100% 0.9 AMP 51.94 0.06 1% 52.62 5% 6 17673 114% 1.4 BMY 126.62 -3.88 5% 133.81 12% 10 21559 118% 0.8 BNI 35.00 -0.12 2% 35.58 7% 10 14812 120% 1.1 CUM 40.88 0.50 34% 62.06 20% 13* 1809 106% 1.8 DOW 92.75 2.62 8% 100.81 12% 12 5137 73% 0.5 EGLE 3.75 0.06 24% 4.94 15% 11 339 206% 1.4 ELT 11.69 0.00 7% 12.56 7% 8 34 10% 0.9 FDX 82.56 0.62 9% 90.69 16% 7 9185 60% 1.1 FNM 68.94 -0.81 9% 75.94 10% 7 24012 106% 0.9 GE 98.00 -2.12 7% 104.88 8% 6 67680 149% 1.2 GP 71.62 1.69 10% 79.50 Hi 35 8504 163% 2.2 GTE 66.06 -1.56 7% 70.81 12% 9 13587 72% 0.9 HAS 38.00 -0.19 7% 40.94 13% 6 7431 134% 1.4 HD 55.88 -1.75 9% 61.56 12% 7 40940 107% 1.2 JNJ 84.00 0.12 6% 89.00 10% 10 19254 66% 1.1 KGT 7.62 0.00 6% 8.12 5% 9 731 98% 1.2 LLY 88.44 -2.50 6% 93.69 19% 15 20118 74% 0.9 MOB 88.44 2.69 2% 90.62 8% 9 27204 106% 1.5 OSSI 39.00 0.06 5% 41.25 14% 12 4275 100% 1.3 SPLS 27.44 -2.00 10% 30.38 15% 7 53972 133% 1.2 TMX 53.00 1.00 8% 57.50 20% 12 5732 43% 1.3 TWA 6.88 0.81 50% 13.62 Hi 22 33440 329% 1.0 UBS 10.06 0.81 9% 11.00 Hi 35 2839 303% 1.6 WMT 83.94 0.19 2% 86.00 8% 6 26313 86% 1.1 XON 71.69 1.88 6% 76.56 10% 15 51115 124% 1.0 PFE 130.88 -0.69 2%* 133.75 15% 7 25808 81% 1.2 PG 84.88 -2.94 10% 94.00 11% 15 22707 92% 1.1 BA 37.25 0.75 33% 56.00 14% 6 29312 52% 1.1 TEVIY 41.75 -0.62 10% 46.25 12% 12 3358 119% 0.7 MRK 149.25 -1.00 6% 158.88 11% 8 21520 75% 0.9 ODP 34.94 -0.69 9% 38.50 13% 6 8869 72% 1.2 EWJ 10.31 -0.12 5% 10.81 7% 11 3973 140% 1.2 TI 98.94 1.81 1%* 100.19 15% 6 842 110% 1.1 WCOM 76.25 0.12 6% 80.75 13% 6 98464 88% 0.9 BPA 87.50 0.31 10% 96.75 12% 9 15847 59% 0.9 ** New lows, low bases, 10+ week lows, & base breakdowns ** 52 Week \|--Base-\| 40 Name Close Change RV High %Rng Wks Vol %V U/D ---- ----- ------ -- ---- ---- ---- --- -- --- AMD 16.81 -2.12 20 32.00 Low 15 101162 210% 0.6 AND 7.62 -0.06 15 24.88 Low 13 1153 101% 0.7 BK 33.00 -0.06 54 40.25 18% 11 17245 100% 0.7 BKB 35.19 -0.19 24 58.69 Low 13 16542 100% 0.7 CNC 27.88 -0.50 11* 57.75 23% 16* 15613 86% 0.7 CNTO 38.25 -2.00 30 52.06 14% 6 9088 35% 1.2 CHK 0.75 -0.06 0 7.19 No Base 12868 203% 0.4 CRUS 8.00 -0.50 30 12.94 Low 14 10673 135% 0.6 FTU 49.12 -0.50 21* 65.69 24% 16 35133 111% 0.6 GLX 63.50 -2.12 50 75.56 13% 6 3005 88% 1.1 GTK 22.88 -0.06 6 39.88 16% 13 1126 68% 0.8 HNZ 51.50 -0.94 10* 61.25 9% 8* 12290 143% 0.7 KYO 49.25 -1.69 54 57.25 9% 6 141 64% 1.0 LU 100.00 -2.88 76 117.19 13% 6 109290 153% 0.9 S 40.31 0.00 5 63.75 12% 9 9240 51% 0.8 SUB 37.31 -0.56 20* 52.25 16% 13* 3975 72% 0.8 VLSI 10.12 -0.53 18 25.69 20% 12 8403 98% 1.0 VSH 11.19 -1.31 11* 22.38 15% 8* 5764 205% 0.5 AVX 13.69 -1.06 NL* 22.88 No Base 1735 144% 0.6 ESCMF 6.00 -0.06 NL 37.75 No Base 1410 39% 0.6 IBM 166.00 -3.56 69 197.00 14% 6 84687 185% 0.9 EWH 8.19 -0.25 45 11.38 16% 15 591 68% 0.8 TNT 1.38 0.00 0 6.50 No Base 4755 385% 0.4 ALA 21.44 -0.38 21 40.88 Low 11 19010 144% 0.6 Performance Analytics - Report Page 1 Prepared for Ramko Rolland Associates on 02/05/99 Top Thirteen Positive % Change For Week Ending 02/05/99 --Performance-- Ticker Company or Percent Dollar Volume Current Week Symbol Security Name Change Change Change Close Today Ago Change -------- ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ------- ----- ----- ----- TWA TWA 44.74% 2.12 92% 6.88 5 -4 9 MENT MENT 33.73% 3.53 599% 14.00 7 2 5 GYMB GYMB 26.98% 2.12 275% 10.00 7 -2 9 MAT MAT 22.87% 5.19 276% 27.88 7 -4 11 DSCP DSCP 22.09% 4.50 216% 24.88 7 -4 11 NVX NVX 20.72% 1.44 -86% 8.38 5 -6 11 UBS UBS 15.83% 1.38 87% 10.06 7 6 1 BLDPF BLDPF 15.67% 3.44 -8% 25.38 0 -7 7 APC APC 15.01% 4.06 21% 31.12 6 -6 12 PD PD 14.68% 6.38 125% 49.81 6 -6 12 OIL OIL 13.59% 0.88 15% 7.31 4 -7 11 IP IP 12.95% 5.12 66% 44.69 6 -7 13 SLB SLB 11.29% 5.38 33% 53.00 7 -7 14 Top Thirteen Negative % Change For Week Ending 02/05/99 --Performance-- Ticker Company or Percent Dollar Volume Current Week Symbol Security Name Change Change Change Close Today Ago Change -------- ----------------- ------- ------- ------ ------- ----- ----- ----- AMD AMD -26.70% -6.12 215% 16.81 -7 -4 -3 CRUS CRUS -23.81% -2.50 -1% 8.00 -7 -6 -1 NN NN -20.70% -7.44 86% 28.50 -7 0 -7 TNT TNT -18.52% -0.31 303% 1.38 -4 -4 0 ECILF ECILF -16.43% -7.12 279% 36.25 -7 6 -13 VSH VSH -15.17% -2.00 88% 11.19 -7 -7 0 LSI LSI -14.77% -4.12 -24% 23.81 0 7 -7 VLSI VLSI -14.74% -1.75 9% 10.12 -7 -6 -1 DSP DSP -12.50% -2.31 -15% 16.19 -5 2 -7 AAPL AAPL -11.84% -4.88 15% 36.31 -7 -2 -5 JBL JBL -11.81% -8.44 105% 63.00 -5 -2 -3 AVX AVX -11.69% -1.81 1% 13.69 -5 -3 -2 NOVL NOVL -11.35% -2.31 -10% 18.06 -7 6 -13 Performance Analytics - Report Page 2

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/5/1999 7:23:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald after the treasury auction the market will rally. Interest rates are to high (e.g. treasury yields) for the ongoing inflation. Employment report was OK and wage inflation was relatively low, 3.3% for such low unemployment of 4.4%. The 401K accounts are growing by same amount and assuming that more go in the market each month in addition to the old contribution to 401K and pension funds the inflow is staggering. BWDIK Haim

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/6/1999 5:04:00 PM
From: Lenny Rosow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald - I'm a newbie to TA since last July so feel free to critique me as I throw in my 2c on price targets via EW eyes. My EW analysis is based on Robert Miner's "Dynamic Trading". The basic theory is when time, price and pattern coincide, change is highly probable, if not inevitable. On 02/04/99/post #5398 I posted my initial observances to Lee here on the MDA thread. I then read from post #5493 by John Pitera that "One good starting point for analysis is suggested by our 108-109 week cycle, the time window for its resolution was between December 24 and February 4. That's today. The highest Dow high in that time period was 9647.96 on an actual print basis. That occurred on January 8. The lowest low in that time window was 9063.26 on January 25. We believe whichever of those high or lows is violated first will identify the other one as the resolution of the 108-109 week cycle, whether it is a top or a bottom. A move above the January 8 high, for example, would now suggest even further madness to the upside for at least a few more weeks and it would suggest that we had seen a cycle bottom on January 25. On the other hand, a move below the January 25 low, would suggest the January 8 would end up being an important top." Here is a link where you can take a look at both scenarios homestead.com. I'm not sure what the S&P 500 QIX stands for and the #'s do not match up exactly with SPH99,the March S&P 500 but the time and price targets for each scenario are there for you to see. Using the SPH99 #'s instead of the ones charted in scenario #1(bullish) your first target is 1313.72 then next the range of 1335.35-1343.65. The most probable time frame a la fibonacci is 02/08/99-02/09/99. In my opinion scenario #2(bearish) is more likely to be taking place. Which is we are in the beginning of a downtrend at minor wave 3 of 1 or A. The price targets here for SPH99 are 1204.50 then 1151.35. The first time frame for a minor trend reversal to the upside is 02/11/99-02/12/99 then 02/18/99-02/19/99. As previously stated, we had a perfect ascending triangle in place until Friday, 02/05/99. The close of yesterday penetrated below the upward sloping bottom boundary(bearish). If the price on Monday does not close back into the triangle then this is another bit of evidence for the bearish scenario. I am not a daytrader so until I see 1290.50 broken on the upside I will not be long the S&P. That's me opinion FWIW, comments welcome - Lenny.

To: donald sew who wrote (5530)	2/7/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald and all, Here's my prediction for this week, based on EW read of the NDX and NAZ, which led both the rallies of recent months and the declines of last week : On a 30 min chart of the NAZ (also the NDX) one can see the decline from the top on 2/1 as 1, then the 1st correction from 2/2 to 2/3 is the 2, the drop on 2/4 morning is 1 of 3, the rest of the day is 2 of 3, and the 3 of 3 selloff started 2/4 14:40 and ended 2/5 12:45, then we had what could be the 4 of 3 or the a of 4 of 3. So for monday I expect either: A drop in the open to around NDX 1950 (5 of 3), and a rally for the rest of the day (4). Or: A ~2 hours rally to NDX 2020 area (c of 4 of 3) and then a sharp selloff to NDX 1970 (5 of 3), and the rally until mid day Tuesday (4). Then we should see another sharp and strong down move starting Tuesday morning/afernoon (depends on Monday's action) and ending Wednsday close or Thursday open (5), and the next rally should be the one you expect (by then you should get a pretty extreme ST oversold read). This rally should last 2-3 days and be quite strong, by the end of which there would be a good exit point for longs and good entry for shorts, around the 15th-16th, for a down wave that could be named c of 2 or 3 of 1 of a. The chart for the S&P is not as clear as the NAZ, but the ending diagonal pattern (see exchange2000.com would be sealed when we drop below 1220. So far Naz and RUT support the downside, but S&P could still show some strength (since we havn't seen a break of the 1220 local low, and halted just shy of the 1230 intersection of two forks, I still give the SPX some benefit of the doubt, and a slim chance we'll see another marginal new high before the collapse, this time without new high on the Naz). The wave pattern from the 2/1 top looks like we ended 1 on 2/2, 2 on 2/3, 1 and 2 of 3 on 2/4, 3 of 3 could have ended at Friday's lows, therefore the 4 rally on Monday should not pass SPX 1251. If we do see 1252 and over Monday or Tuesday, then there's a better chance for a try at David Plonk's 1290. This, however, is not my opinion, with the weakness shown by Naz and RUT, and if we break 1230 Monday morning then I believe the chances for a rally over 1251, or any significant rally before Thursday would be greatly diminished. Once we break 1220 next support is 1160. ATG