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To: JungleInvestor who wrote (36943)	2/5/1999 5:30:00 PM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>>>The Bear may well arrive when the Fed raises interest rates to fight inflation<<< What inflation, still 1.5% a year ? In what sectors do you see inflation creeping up ? OK . Wages are on a bit of a tear but the output per manhour is keeping up.....

To: JungleInvestor who wrote (36943)	2/5/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

The Mindset is changing - ''commodities'' are ''IN'' again .. <<"The failure of the rally [yesterday], after the [Federal Open Market Committee] calmed everyone down by not talking about raising rates if the economy stays hot, was a real worry," said Jim Volk, co-director of institutional trading at D.A. Davidson in Portland, Ore. "Everyone is running scared because of the mindset that you have to be the first one out of the theatre in case someone yells 'fire.' This, I think, is one of the primary reasons for the recent volatility, especially on the downside." >> * and when they coming running out of the theatre - they'll be looking for cheap/oversold value. <<Once again, recently ignored commodity producers were finding favor with investors. Big gainers this morning included Alcoa (AA:NYSE), 3M (MMM:NYSE), Dow Chemical (DOW:NYSE), Chevron (CHV:NYSE) and Mobil (MOB:NYSE). "You start hearing talk of a Fed tightening and have GDP and employment numbers higher than expected," said one trader. "With the valuation of these companies being at rock bottom prices it's easy to see why some money is shifting there." >> * Copper & Aluminum are starting now; Oil will not be too far behind. Our initial move on just sector rotation looking for value will be the 1st Phase, it's starting and it will be substantial. The positive drawdowns in the supply glut - either from better OPEC compliance, new cuts, or just the Global E&P reductions leading to increased expectations of $15-16 Crude will be phase II. The Asian recovery and cooresponding demand rise - which will catch the World by surprise will be Phase III. Crude's resulting spike and cooresponding increases in Rig utilization & dayrates from Cap Ex increases and the year over year earnings increases will take the OSX to heady levels in Phase IV. That's where the Street can have ''some'' of my stocks back.... <VBG>. Amazing, but we are just now ''boarding'' the train for phase I ...