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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (5553)	2/5/1999 9:29:00 PM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Geez, Donald, I gave you the timing of it on the Kahuna thread. Aren't you paying attention? Vitas

To: donald sew who wrote (5553)	2/5/1999 9:48:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald, you can use 14 or 9 days RSI, doesn't matter, but there are some powerful divergence in breadth and RSI. I also posted about ten days ago a weekly spx chart with a stoch sell. The SPX has not really corrected yet, given a large RSI divergence and the 2nd time in a row for the SPX to make a new high with the McCllelan Oscillator in negative territory is very bearish. The advance is on a much narrower set of issues than the April/July top. (and most of them are in the red -gggggggggg) The charts of the NYA and the DJA have indecision patterns at the base of very negative breadth sell-off on 13th. These are continuation patterns. Add in that we have another Dow Theory Sell - this time with DJU taking out 200 dma on a waterfall decline. bb

To: donald sew who wrote (5553)	2/5/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: J. P.	Respond to of 99985

donald, Appreciate your analysis, they've been fairly accurate, and I enjoy reading this thread. I'm no technical analyst, but feel I'd like to add my opinion here. And if the following fundamental data I'm about to submit does not belong here, let me know. The Nasdaq has been making bone crushing new highs since October now. The only pullback of any sort has occurred in January earlier due to a "false alarm" with Brazil. Fueling the run in the Nasdaq has been low inflation, three rate cuts, great liquidity, the perception of fantastic PC sales 4th Q, and a dearth of significantly negative world financial events. All of this has been priced into the Nasdaq in spades. Any attempts to short this rally have been squashed immediatly. It is my opinion that Nasdaq was ready to correct on a fundamental basis when Microsoft announced earnings, and we began to sell off two days later. However, Microsoft then announced the split, and IBM and Intel soon followed suit, and we had another two weeks artificial rally on the strength of splits, and some other earnings trickling out. We have only three events that can give the tech market hope for any upside at this point 1)A bounce rally off these two selloff days 2)The Goldman Tech toutfest 3)Dell earnings. After Dell earnings in 2 weeks we have nothing at all to support tech, we'll be left with only earnings preannouncements. I think right after Dell, we begin to sell in earnest down to the 200 DMA, which is around 1900-2000 Nasdaq. There will be bargains at that point, and you will be able to pick and choose at your leisure, because most will be either broke, or afraid to buy. It has been my observation over the last few years that the tech stocks run in fairly predictable cycles. They run up and get way overvalued and run ahead of SPX and DOW, then they rather rapidly are sold off down to the 200 day moving average, where they find support. The exception to this being last summer, when they actually pierced the 200 DMA twice, before this huge rally. IMO, Jim