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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Catcher who wrote (15580)	2/6/1999 12:55:00 AM
From: Lee Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Catcher, Let me throw in my .02 on the MSFT/DELL question. IMHO DELL will have to get above 120 to have ANY chance of a split announcement with earnings. The momo boys have got 6 days to push the stock 20 pts. against negative sentiment especially toward bellwhether techs. I've seen sentiment turn on a dime (ie. last week!) so I know next week we could be kicking butt again, but I just don't think the momo guys will be able to pull it off. DELL management has probably already considered a split and decided not to due to the volatility in the stock (upward) and the market (downward) lately. Once the folks ramping the stock hoping for a split begin to realize it ain't gonna happen, they will bail. I'm not saying DELL won't announce a split in the next couple of months, I'm just saying I don't think it's going to come with earnings, and when it doesn't the stock will get a haircut starting FEB 17. Now to MSFT. It bounced off the 26 day MA today on strong volume. Also if you draw a straight line through the lows since OCT 8, you will see we are right on that line which should be strong support. MSFT is also down 9% which should be enough to discount the temporary bad news/sentiment due to the trial. Don't think that the smart $$ has forgotten all the good news that came with the last earnings report. MSFT is Fido's second largest holding last I heard. Funds wanting to beat the S&P this year will have to add more MSFT and AOL. Bottom line: Short term MSFT at 160 or DELL at 100? I'd have to put my $$ on MSFT now and buy DELL after the post earnings haircut I see coming. Long term both will continue to be huge winners. Regards,Lee

To: Catcher who wrote (15580)	2/6/1999 1:41:00 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Catcher, If the selling pressure on Naz subsides, Dell should outperform MSFT now until a day or two before earnings release. I am very cautious about it the last 2 days before earnings simply because there are a lot of managers out there who think Dell will drop post earnings just like the rest of the techs did (except MSFT of course). Remember how MSFT caused such a build up of expectations leading into IBM's earnings--which did not impress and IBM got hit. Dell may be an exception--- I am just hoping to unload the rest of my Dell options (Februaries) 2 to 3 days before. However, factors other than earnings might actually push the stock before and after earnings----IBM rumors; new Dell auction site I have been reading about---some sort of new internet related activity. Michael Dell wants the stock to go up and will whatever it takes to accomplish this. Personally, i think the earnings are going to be great but last quarter sure cast some doubts not upon the revenue but the EPS due to price cuts among PC makers. Of course a company like MSFT did not cut prices on Windows98. Catcher, I am just hoping for the best---Once the selling subsides, it could move up very fast to 110 (all it takes is a couple of 5 point days) and beyond at which time i will unload my Februaries. JMHO