To: Maurice Winn who wrote (2799 ) 2/8/1999 12:29:00 AM From: djane Respond to of 29987
Ovum Predicts Exponential Growth [More stats for you, Maurice...]wirelessweek.com From the January 18, 1999 issue of Wireless Week By Paul Quigley LONDON--Research by London research firm Ovum Inc. forecasts continued exponential growth in cellular connections worldwide over the next five years. Western Europe will remain the single largest contiguous wireless market, closely followed by North America and Asia. The firm predicts that the number of digital cellular connections worldwide will increase from 203.4 million at the end of 1998 to 402.6 million by the end of 2000 and then reach 612.5 million by 2002. In its study, Ovum considered the leading global cellular technologies, including global system for mobile communications, code division multiple access, personal digital cellular, digital advanced mobile radio service and third-generation systems as well as analog cellular networks based on AMPS, C-450, Nordic mobile telephone and total access communications system. Olivier Burois, consultant with Ovum's Mobile and Satellite Division in London, said total cellular revenue worldwide will grow from $195 billion at the end of 1998 to $280 billion by the end of 2000 and increase to $361 billion by the end of 2002. Against a backdrop of uncertain global economics, Ovum's mobile market predictions paint a far rosier picture for the industry. Recent figures from the International Monetary Fund indicate that North America and Western Europe will likely avoid an economic downturn, while merchant bankers, Merrill Lynch, forecasts global economic growth at 1.1 percent. Global headcount, according to London-based statistics firm, Eurodata, will increase from 300 million in 1998 to 311 million in North America by 2002; in the same time frame, Europe's population will rise from 384 million to 397 million. The three largest regions in cellular revenue terms, will be the United States, Western Europe and Asia Pacific, accounting for 79 percent of the global cellular market in 1998. According to Ovum, this will decrease slightly to 75 percent by 2002 as other markets start to make a global impact. One notable region starting to make a big mark in the revenue stakes, Burois said, is Eastern Europe. "Poland, Russia, Ukraine, Hungary and the Czech Republic are the big growth markets," he said. "The penetration rate in 1998 was 1.7 percent across Eastern Europe, but it will increase to 5.5 percent by the year 2002." In Hungary alone, the penetration level will reach 19.7 percent by 2002. As for Western Europe, Ovum's research indicates revenue growth will increase from $58 billion at the end of 1998 to $111 billion in 2002. Despite current economic problems, Asia Pacific's cellular revenue, according to Ovum, will stay in second place with $55 billion in revenue in 1998 reaching $82 billion by 2002. North America will rise from $41 million to $76 billion in the same five-year period.However, a real revelation uncovered by Ovum's forecast research that will drive the continued cellular expansion is that people will start to use more than one cellular connection. "These forecasts provide estimates of cellular connections," Burois said. "This means the number of devices with current and paid-for connection to the networksthe installed base. "We have chosen to use connections rather than subscribers because the market will become more complicated," he said. "Tariff packages are now appearing which allow two phones or devices to use a single pool of airtime. We expect to see much wider use of these." According to Ovum's research, some cellular operators suggested that their market could even reach market penetration levels of 120 percent of the population in the long term. | Home Page | Site Map | Search Archive | PowerSearch | | International | Wireless Web Sites | Hot Stories | Please send comments and suggestions on this Web site to jcollins@chilton.net Wireless Week, 600 S. Cherry St., #400, Denver, CO 80246 Voice: 303-393-7449, Fax: 303-399-2034 Published by Cahners Business Information © Copyright 1999. All rights reserved.