<OT>
Geiche, something to ponder over the weekend.
Now that Jordan is going to have a dynastic change, could life be imitating art or history be repeating itself? Coming to mind are various scenarios, among which is a replay, or a revamping of Shakespeare's Hamlet, a new millenium saga bound to have a profound effect and influence over the Middle Eastern geopolitical dynamics and, the reason why we are here for, oil. It's not just Jordan, but rather a slew of Mid Eatern Dynasties, to which Jordan will be setting a precedent, that will be changing hands at a faster pace for power transition. It's like earnings reporting time for businesses and companies, and the clock is ticking especially for Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil-producing country in the world. Iran would certainly make an addition had it not been for the revolution that had overthrown the Shah in exchange for an anti-American fundamentalist government. Jordan is a very important key to the geopolitics in the Middle East given its vital geographical position, a buffer zone between Israel and Iraq; it's like sleeping between a tiger and lion. I am not sure the royal heir could handle this or handle it well so that it won't wind up in the stomach of either. The US government has a very legitimate reason to worry about Saddam Hussein because with the passing of those "venerable" Kings and Queens, Saddam is left there like a butcher in the meat market, a kid in the candy store, and a ruthless dictator with a powerful army which pretty soon will be equipped with all sorts of weapons of mass destruction. You bet he is abiding by his time, waiting for the opportunity and the perfect moment to strike. The move towards Kuwait was just a stone to test the water; his aspiration is far beyond that. The ultimate determinent in this interesting piece of history is, as always, time.
Take a look in the following NY Times article.
February 6, 1999
Analysis: Hussein's Death May Be Harbinger of Regional Change
Related Articles
Jordanians Stand Vigil as King Hussein Clings to Life
Jordan's Crown Prince Calls Himself an Extension of Hussein's Beliefs
Forum
Join a Discussion on King Hussein's Legacy
By DOUGLAS JEHL
EHRAN, Iran -- Not only will the death of King Hussein of Jordan, the region's longest-serving leader,
mark the end of an era, but it may also herald the beginning of a traumatic changing of the guard
across the Arab world.
For decades the very durability of Arab leaders has been a steadying force in one of the world's most volatile
regions. Not since 1982, in Saudi Arabia, has power in a major Arab country passed from one leader to
another.
But now most Arab rulers are aging, and several are ill. In some places the path of succession remains
uncertain. And with last month's surprise move, in which he entrusted his kingdom to his untested eldest
son, Hussein may have offered a foretaste of struggles and intrigue to come.
"Repression doesn't work; it hasn't worked," the king, himself a generally benevolent monarch, said in an
interview last month when asked what advice he would give to the next generation of Arab leaders.
Future handovers, he said, will feature evolution, not turbulence. Indeed, his own last-minute
machinations, though wrenching, appear to have laid the ground for a smooth succession.
Still, heavy-handedness remains the norm across the Arab world. And after long years in which various
aspirations and ambitions have simmered beneath the surface, it is not at all clear what will happen as
long-serving leaders leave the scene.
Among the Arabs there remains no rival to Hussein's 47-year-reign, which began when Harry Truman was
president.
It outlasted coups, wars, assassination attempts and, for a time, cancer's blight. But with its end, power will
pass to his 37-year-old heir, the soon-to-be-crowned King Abdullah, who has had little practice with
political power.
But other Arab leaders, most notably those of the Syrians and the Palestinians, have been in place for more
than a quarter-century, and Jordan is certainly not unique in that its leader's long tenure has allowed much
pressure to build beneath what sometimes seemed an implacable surface.
"These guys have hung on for a long time, and it's possible that they'll hold on for a lot longer," said a
Western diplomat in the region. "But some of them seem to be living on borrowed time, and so much is at
stake that it's all but impossible to believe that the succession everywhere will be smooth."
One other Arab transition has already begun: in Saudi Arabia, where day-to-day control of the government
has passed from King Fahd, who is 76 and has suffered several strokes, to his brother and designated heir,
Crown Prince Abdullah.
Abdullah is all but certain to become the next Saudi king, but the lesson of Jordan may be that no such
thing is entirely certain. In the surprise that made room for his son, Hussein ousted his brother, Crown
Prince Hassan, after 34 years as the presumed heir, with a bitter letter that revealed years of suspicion and
resentment.
The Saudi crown prince, like his brother, is in his mid-70s, and diplomats say rivalries within the royal
family may make the succession after his uncertain.
The picture is much less clear in Syria and among the Palestinians, whose front-line positions with Israel
make their futures crucial. Both Hafez al-Assad, the Syrian president, and Yasser Arafat, the Palestinian
leader, will turn 70 this year. Both have shown unmistakable signs of illness.
Assad, who took power in a 1970 coup, has used government muscle to enforce a kind of tense internal
stability. But he has battled heart problems for more than 15 years, accounting for his often-ghostly pallor,
and periodic disappearances from public view have been seen as signs of his deteriorating health.
Assad has in place a designated deputy, Vice President Abdel-Karim Khaddam, but he has also been
grooming a son, Bashar, a military officer with no position within the ruling Baath party. Syria is a secretive
country in which authoritative information is scarce, but it is also riven by long-suppressed rivalries, and
diplomats say that challenges to any succession plan are not at all out of the question.
Arafat, the Palestinians' main leader since the 1960s, has also shown increasing signs of failing health. His
lower lip trembles incessantly, as does his writing hand, but Palestinian officials have denied reports that he
has Parkinson's disease.
And Arafat has taken pains to avoid building up a potential successor who might also be a rival. Several of
his top lieutenants in the Palestine Liberation Organization were killed by the Israelis during the
Palestinians' long quest for a homeland, and some surviving candidates, such as Mahmoud Abbas, who
negotiated key peace agreements with Israel, appear open to internal challenge.
Another potential setting for instability is Iraq, where President Saddam Hussein has ruled in title since
1979, and in practice since 1970. Saddam, who is 61, is relatively youthful and is not known to be ill, but he
too has never designated a successor. If American-backed efforts to topple him succeed, the result could
well be an unstable vacuum of power.
The Libyan leader, Moammar Gadhafi, 56, has been in power since a 1969 coup, and has never designated a
successor. Perhaps tellingly, he dispatched his son to Jordan late last month to meet with Crown Prince
Abdullah.
Perhaps the most important of Arab countries where the course of succession remains unclear is Egypt,
where President Hosni Mubarak took power in 1981 after the assassination of Anwar Sadat. Mubarak, now
70, was vice president at the time. But though he himself was targeted in a 1995 assassination attempt, he
has never named a vice president of his own.
Egyptian officials say that, should anything happen to Mubarak, established constitutional procedures
would make for a smooth handover, but the fact that the path is not clear has been a source of concern to
Western governments.
Remarkable as it may seem, the only Arab governments to have changed hands in the last 15 years have
been on the region's periphery -- in Sudan, with a 1986 coup; in Lebanon, with elections last year; and in
Qatar, where the emir, Sheik Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, took power in 1995 after removing his father in a
bloodless coup.
(Iran, which is Persian, not Arab, but is nevertheless a powerhouse in the Middle East, has seen more recent
change. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was selected in 1989 to succeed Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini as the
country's supreme leader, while President Mohammed Khatami was elected to succeed Hashemi
Rafsanjani.)
The norm has been longevity. In the tiny sheikdoms and emirates of the Persian Gulf, most leaders have
ruled since independence in the 1960s and '70s. Excluding Sheik Hamad, their average age is more than 70.
After Hussein's death, the distinction of the region's longest-serving leader will pass to King Hassan of
Morocco. Hassan, 69, has spent 38 years on the throne, and has groomed his son and heir Prince Sidi
Mohammed for what he hopes will be a smooth succession.
Home | Site Index | Site Search | Forums | Archives |
Marketplace
Quick News | Page One Plus | International | National/N.Y. |
Business | Technology | Science | Sports | Weather |
Editorial | Op-Ed | Arts | Automobiles | Books | Diversions |
Job Market | Real Estate | Travel
Help/Feedback | Classifieds | Services | New York Today
Copyright 1999 The New York Times Company |
