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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (95466)	2/6/1999 6:30:00 AM
From: jttmab	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Mohan, You're pretty hyped this morning. Too much coffee? Dreaming of sugar plums and .com evaluations on DELL? I think it may be early to expect much out of the prospective expansion....but maybe we ought to forward some of the posts to CNBC on Monday. BTW what do you think about the possibility of Kumar doing a little front-running? Regards, Jim

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (95466)	2/6/1999 6:58:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

DON'T WORRY...BE HAPPY! Some reasons to feel good about (Dell) and the markets in the next couple months: (Geez Mo, you are taking the job of thread master too seriously...I can't sleep.....what is your excuse? gggg) (1) Historically, we are still within a good period for stocks...September, October, and May are the worse months for the markets...what is interesting, is that the research (I have seen) indicates that this is not confined (solely) to the U.S. market, but to foreign markets as well....The tech stocks downturn (if there is one) usually doesn't start occuring (on a calender-year basis) until early summer.... (2) Ain't NO WAY the Fed is going to raise interest rates here...Next meeting is 3rd week in March....After that, I believe in May...some drastic things would have to happen for a Fed rate cut to occur in May, IMO...most likely, we are looking at 2nd half of the year here (if at all).....also, Alan Greenspan DOES GET IT....he will not raise while Brazil is in turmoil....and the Phillip curve is no longer the dominant way of looking at interest rates/inflation/unemployment..Greenspan is probably as "new era" as one could expect a Fed chairman to be....We can't ask for anymore or better here...IMO There is no indication of increased commodity prices anywhere on the horizon...one could guess is that they are reaching a bottom here...but that would be speculation at best....therefore, a major damper (on inflation) remains in place.. With the back up in rates in recent days...we are at the top of the band that the market(s) have been trading in for the past many weeks...many traders believe the next move is down....a rate hike (and/or bias) is already factored into the bond market (IMO)..real rates are still too high...they can not (and will not) go much higher from here...the markets are doing Greenspan's work for him.... (3) Intel reported that January demand was "better than expected". (4) Looking at LAST year's numbers, it does NOT appear that the period February-April was outstanding for the PC sector in general, nor for Dell..but somewhat normal (for Dell), or even weak... (I believe EPS rose "ONLY" from .405 to .435)...so Dell will have y-o-y comps. in Q1 that should look pretty good (reporting in May).. (5) Storage revs./earnings should kick in in a major way in Q1... (6) Pentium III upgrade coming out in a couple weeks....Historically, this has been Dell's advantage...First to market with the latest-edge technology...Should help support sales growth... (7) There is clear evidence that companies continue to upgrade due to Y2K...for some, panic stage has set in...Numerous articles have pointed to the fact that companies prefer to upgrade (their equipment) over other solutions... (8) U.S. economic growth continues amazing strong...consumers are confident....small businesses and large corporation remain confident....(remember all the talk last October how companies were going to cut back spending in 1999, and consumers over Christmas due to the coming recession).. (9) We are riding into what may be the best earnings report (in terms of % above analysts estimates) in several quarters...So far, at least, it does not look like "whisper numbers" are at astronomically high levels... (10) Intel/AMD price war should, if anything, benefit Dell (11) Consumer receiving refund checks from IRS between now and May....this is NO SMALL ITEM...should support continued buying of new computers and stocks....(this may be one of the reasons for #1, btw) (12) Market technicians wanted their "cool-off"..they got it....Like or not, believe them or not, short-term...they do have an impact...they buy and sell like other (or work for those who do) (13) MD and others have predicted stronger PC growth in 1999....last I checked, we are one month into that calender year....remember, financial statements are viewed in lite of y-o-y comps....so all things being equal, a stronger overall market should make us look even better... (14) There has been NO indication of any shift away from the philosophy of investing in the "biggest of the big" high-growth, high cap technology stocks.....if you will...the five horseman (Dell, Microsoft, Intel, MCI/Worldcom, Cisco)...one day, small-caps will probably gain at the expense of the big caps....no evidence that this is going to happen anytime soon... (15) Jerry Favors said we are going short-term higher (just kidding on this one...) So, in conclusion, have a great weekend, DON'T WORRY, BE HAPPY....