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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: unclewest who wrote (15185)	2/6/1999 9:58:00 AM
From: Robert Jacobs	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 93625

I am posting for the first time here after signing up for SI membership. Have owned Rambus for a year and have been steadily accumulating. I have the same feeling about RMBS that I had a about MSFT which I bought at the IPO in '86 e.g. a standard that is supported by key players in an industry that is growing exponentially. The difference here (besides RMBS being in the hardware side rather than software) is that MSFT was much further along when it went public (and had a reasonable multiple) while RMBS went public at a time when MSFT was still private. So we as investors are really acting as VC investors experiencing the uncertainties of what is just beyond a development stage company. To me, what really distinguishes and excites is that RMBS is a "virtual" company where the margins can be much higher than anyone here has posited. Like Unclewest, I am settling in for a long term ride which if even 1/10th that which I experienced with MSFT should make us all quite pleased. I would also like to share with you all that while MSFT was my biggest investing success also turned out to be my biggest failure: While I had the conviction to buy and hold at the IPO, I sold half my holdings a few years later because I could not believe a stock could perform so well over a long period. The half that I sold to build a house makes this 5,000sf pile of sticks and bricks now worth over $30m if I had chosen another investment. Shame on me. Us early stage investors who are acting as VC investors at this stage can only have a flat earth perspective...meaning we cannot see over the horizon. There are some, and we only need to read the whisps of significant weather to come in the western sky (releases by Samsung; testing equip mfgrs investment etc) that over the horizon is a storm of earnings that totally belie the calm of today. So as the earth turns and the story unfolds we early ones will find ourselves looking back on this period with the satisfaction of having predicted the success of a truly great opportunity. Holding with 5k shares....adding 1k/month to 10k.

To: unclewest who wrote (15185)	2/6/1999 10:20:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 93625

Hey, unclewest, I have staked a "claim" on the $61 level few months back when we were collecting year end numbers...($122 after doubling from the low 60'). I still think that estimate is still in the card. What really worries me is that when I throw these numbers, Mr. market has the habit of humbling me exercising its excesses. Last time I did this exercise with CYMI, I had a low of $13 and it went to 6 and with ADPT my low was $16 and it went under $10. Thus, could we see $30 before we roar ahead <g>? Na... Zeev

To: unclewest who wrote (15185)	2/6/1999 1:58:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

uncle, cahners-in-stat forecasts 2000-2001 dram sales at $135B. rising to $232B by 2002-2003. Do you have a link to such estimates. I would like to research further. KIM, DRAM prices historically erode over time and the above estimate is a 75% increase over 2 year time period. TIA, MileHigh

To: unclewest who wrote (15185)	2/6/1999 2:17:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 93625

uncle, The forecast, based on the consensus of market researchers from 70 chip companies worldwide, hinges on DRAMs showing a 20% revenue increase in 1998 to $25.0 billion compared to $20.8 billion this year. In 1997, DRAM revenues are expected to fall 16.9% after slipping 38.5% in 1996 to $25.1 billion. The troubled DRAM segment continues to struggle with price erosion and over capacity. In 1995, DRAM revenues hit a record $40.8 billion. Based on the new forecast by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, the SIA now expects DRAM revenues to climb to record levels in the year 2000, reaching $41.7 billion in sales worldwide. You quote $135B- quite a disparity. I believe you are using total semi revenue estimates...Granted my data is a bit old, but gives a better indication of DRAM market going forward. MileHigh PS- I like math too! The normal drill down on above #'s yield EPS of approx. $6.00 @ 50% market share-- similar to Edelstones estimates.

To: unclewest who wrote (15185)	2/6/1999 2:39:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Respond to of 93625

uncle, Here are better estimates- remember estimates are like opinions- everybody has one. Chip industry poised for comeback By Michael Kanellos Staff Writer, CNET News.com November 12, 1998, 7:50 a.m. PT After slugging through one of the worst years in a decade, the semiconductor industry is poised to start making a comeback in 1999 that could culminate in annual industrywide sales of $182 billion by 2001, according to the Semiconductor Industry Organization. A recovery is predicated on the assessment that the factors that drove the industry down in 1998 will largely be gone, said a study released by the SIA. PC inventories are under control while the glut in memory chips has largely vanished. Demand for memory, microprocessors, and other chips, meanwhile, is expected to remain robust because demand for PCs and new products such as handhelds and other intelligence devices continues to climb. Increased demand in turn will soak up the excess factory capacity which drove down prices in the past two years. "The semiconductor market is a $122 billion industry this year, but we should hit $182 billion by the year 2001.That's a growth rate of 42 percent," said Steve Appleton, CEO of memory maker Micron Technology and president of the SIA, in a prepared statement. "1998 has been a tough year. We experienced a negative 10.9 percent growth rate, [but] the underlying fundamentals of the semiconductor business are strong." 1998 was the first year since 1985 where the industry as a whole declined. Next year, the industry will see a 9.1 percent surge in growth, the SIA predicted. "1999 should be better than 1998," added Linley Gwennap, publisher of The Microprocessor Report. "We're seeing a pretty strong PC processor market next year." Non-PC devices will then begin to add to chipmakers' revenues in 2000 and beyond, he added. A side effect of the recovery, Gwennap added, could be price stabilization. Prices will continue to decline, but probably not as steeply as in 1998. "We've seen very steep declines in the past few years that will not be duplicated," he said. Appelton will formally deliver the results at a dinner for the organization in San Jose, California, tonight. Among the SIA's predictions: The memory market will decline 25.7 percent from 1997 levels to $21.8 billion this year. In 1999, however, memory sales will grow 18.1 percent to $25.8 billion and will hit $40.5 billion in 2001. Microprocessor sales will come to $23.6 billion in 1998, roughly flat with 1997 figures. Sales will climb 8.4 percent in 1999, 15.9 percent in 2000, and 17.6 percent in 2001. 2001 sales are expected to approach $35 billion. Digital signal processor sales were one of the few bright spots in 1998. DSPs will grow by 6.5 percent to $3.4 billion in 1998 and then surge by 20.4 percent in 1999 and 26.7 percent in 2000. North America will remain the top chip consumer, accounting for $61.4 billion in 2001. Europe will eat $43 billion in chips while Asia will consume $3.9 billion. All three regions will grow faster than Japan. Evidence of a chip recovery has been coming in the past few weeks. The SIA and IC Insights reported earlier this month that sales jumped over 4 percent between August and September. While September 1998 sales were still well below sales for the same month from the year before, both organizations noted that the August-September jump was double the ordinary leap in sales. And yesterday, Intel said that revenues for the fourth quarter would be around eight to 10 percent higher than the $6.7 billion in revenue reported in the third quarter. Intel earlier told Wall Street to expect only modest growth. As a result, the chipmaker's stock's hit a record high of $103.69 today. Nonetheless, Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, warned that a sustained recovery will depend upon the health of the world economy. Inventories might go down and factory capacity may begin to tighten up, but demand will have to remain robust. If it slips, so will the semiconductor industry, in all likelihood. "The health of the global economy is still very much in doubt. The possibility of a global recession [is] the key factor affecting the semiconductor industry in 1999