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To: Dale Baker who wrote (2958)2/6/1999 2:05:00 PM
From: Dale BakerRespond to of 118717
 
PORTFOLIO UPDATE FOR FEBRUARY 6:

Tech stocks tripped and fell this week. Portfolio now up only 10% year to date after hitting a high of +15% mid-week. My goal this week was to cut back exposure in tech stocks, diversify, get off margin and dump some Tradin' Trash which didn't rebound in January.

If you count Internet retailers (FHT, PROG, FLYR and NETS) as tech stocks, my tech-other ratio is now 58-42, down from 70-36 (counting margin). If they don't count, then I am actually 49-51 techs to non-techs.. Now evenly divided between stocks with more than $1 billion market cap and those below.

CORE POSITIONS: WCOM, BRKB, CMGI. (32.5%)

50% GAIN CANDIDATES: CMIV, FLYR, FNDTF, FOX, FHT, MFNX, MXTR, NETS, PROG, RNWK, SE, VRIO, WIZTF, XLY(51%) These positions range from 2 - 7.5% of the portfolio each. I took profits in PLCM and XYLN, and stopped out VTSS break even. Added non-techs FOX and XLY plus new tech stocks SE (a former player here), WIZTF and Internut NETS. I have a buy order in for VTSS at 43 if I can get it back at that price. Stops in for FHT, MFNX, RNWK.

TRADIN' TRASH: NRAG, JADWF. (4%) Took profits in TNO then lost those and more in a day trade. What a turkey. Dumped KCS and ERGO for a loss. Should have bought them in the last few days of 1998 when the dumping was at its worst. A lesson for this December.

MUTUAL FUND CORNER: BEARX (short), SCGEX (Europe). (11.5%)

SHORT: IMON, RACE.

OPTIONS: LOR January 2000 25 calls, HMK September 25 calls. Sold half of my LOR calls to pick up the HMK calls. (1%)

Performance by % gains:

(LOR calls +94%)
WCOM +40%
FHT +33%
RNWK +28%
FNDTF +22%
CMGI +19%
MFNX +16%
VRIO +16%
BRKB +16%
RACE short +13%
WIZTF +10%
SE+3%
SCGEX +1%
BEARX +1%

FOX -1%
XLY -2%
NETS -3%
PROG -15%
CMIV -14%
MXTR -17%
HMK calls -18%
IMON short -20%
FLYR -30%
JADWF -40%
NRAG -55%

Performance by $$$ gains:

WCOM
BRKB
CMGI
VRIO
FNDTF
RNWK
MFNX
FHT
WIZTF
BEARX
SCGEX

(Paper profits amount to 6 1/2% of the portfolio)

FOX
NETS
XLY
FLYR
IMON short
PROG
CMIV
MXTR
JADWF
NRAG

(Paper losses equal 3% of the portfolio without NRAG and 7% with NRAG)

Sector Breakdown:

Internet Services: RNWK, VRIO, CMGI (18.5%)
Financial/Insurance: BRKB (16.5%)
Communications: WCOM, MFNX, LOR (14%)
Mutual Funds: BEARX (Shorts), SCGEX (Europe) (11%)
Software: FNDTF, SE, WIZTF (11%)
Internet Retailers: FHT, PROG, NETS (7%)
Cyclicals/Transportation: XLY (6%)
Hardware: CMIV, MXTR (5.5%)
Gaming: NRAG (3%)
Broadcasting: FOX (3%)
Travel: FLYR (2%)
Misc: JADWF (.5%)

I will be on the road for most of next week so I don't see this lineup changing much in the near term, unless I am stopped out in some of the momentum stocks.




To: Dale Baker who wrote (2958)2/6/1999 9:53:00 PM
From: Mao IIRespond to of 118717
 
DB: FOX tempted me to, but I bought into CBS at rock bottom right when Westinghouse bought it and Jordan suggested WX would transform itself into a pure bcast play. It has been a slow mover, for sure, and to be honest, as a media person myself, I don't like what Mel is doing to the franchise in order to make it go. I guess I'm a romantic. One thing that will hamper CBS' drive to 50 is the huge amount of stock held by old Westinghouse employes who are selling off in the 35-36 range. That's why the stock has been unable to crack that barrier. When those shares are exhausted, however, and if market as a whole is mildly supportive, CBS will run. This has been going on for well over a year, so I suspect we are close to depletion. The bet sounds fine; I hope we tie!
On another matter -- DISH. This area interests me too. Do you have a good sense of an entry point? I'd probably want to hold for awhile. M2.
PS Can't remember if you've left the states yet or not. But safe journey. M.