Bouf, I am doing some DD this weekend, and I plan to post the results sometime Sunday or Monday morning. There are number of ways to value the stock.
However, one simple way is to say that since BANY gave 1/5 of their 1 million shares out as a dividend to BANY investors in the ratio of 111 ANYI shares per 5,000 shares of BANY, the remaining value of holding 5,000 shares of BANY is directly equal to 444 shares of ANYI.
This is a VERY simplistic, yet useful assumption. Using this assumption, you can say that every $5 of price for ANYI gives BANY a value of $0.44. You may also try to value BANY's own business, which has been widely debated on this thread, since BANY itself may be considered a breakout stock in its own right for having signed some major deals recently to sell their hardshell laptop cases. If you want to be conservative, you could give BANY a value of $0.20, which was its price last summer before they did the ANYI deal. However, valuing BANY at less than $0.50 will usually get you flamed by those that think 1999 will be BANY's breakout year on its own.
So, depending on where you think ANYI will trade at, you can develop some simple valuations. It looks like the 200,000 new common shares will be issued as warrants, so you buy the warrant for $1, and pay $3 for the stock once it trades above $4 for more than 10 days. No, I see no potential that ANYI warrants will not all be issued within 10 days of trading. The opening stock price will be irrelevant, since the MM will open the first trade wherever they choose. The opening price is impossible to predict or calculate, no matter what anyone tells you.
MLRE was to open at $3.50 I believe, but I don't think you'll find many people who got this price. MLRE reached $27 within a few days, each day more and more people became aware of the stock, until it finally made ALL of the national news services.
With respect to Monday, this story is just trickling, only a few drops have gotten out so far. No PR has even been issued about the SEC filing. In fact, I think I personally know the origin of nearly all of the buy orders that were made at ~$0.75, and most of the orders before 10:00 a.m. It appears that my post #4335 at 9:43 (https://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=7674582) was one of the first accountings made public of the SEC filing. I'm no egomaniac, I know other people found the filing before I did and choose not to share their analysis, and my post was not the sole source of the run to 1 23/65. But, we have not had yet had the benefit of a PR on the wire or ANY press coverage. We were not widely discussed on SI on Friday, and to my knowledge none of the ToykoMex crowd has jumped on BANY (although I may be wrong). We had no large block orders (1 for 23,000, 3 for 17,500), and volume did not even top 1 million (assuming 2/3 of 845,800 volume were buys, only ~$500K of new money was invested in BANY on Friday.
So, to answer your question, if you want to assume ANYI reaches $25 (arbitrary guess) in price, BANY could easily be valued at $2.40 (5*.44+.2). However, that would mean ANYI's 3.2M shares would give it a market cap of $80 million. If you start comparing that market cap to the $220 million CPQ paid to buy BB:IBUY (inferior to ANYI IMO), or the market caps of any of the other e-commerce sites that trade on the Nasdaq, there are enough reasons for the mo-mo players to jump in here and do some serious work.
If ANYI market cap were $220 million, ANYI would be priced at ~$70 (220/3.2), and BANY could be valued at ~$5.50 (12*.44+.20). Although this valuation is on the high end, if ANYI gets a Nasdaq listing, we will get some very professional valuations done by folks with alot more experience than you'll get from me.
Another valuation model involves a calculation based on a multiplier of last years earnings (say 20X for example). If you take the ~$1.5 million earned in the last 6 months of '98, you can assume $3.0 for the year or add half of the ~$650K from the year ended June 30 1999. Again, very simple and rough calculations. If you use $3 million X20 you get a market cap of $60M, or a ANYI price of ~$20. So you could value BANY at $1.96 (4*.44+.20).
I don't have a prediction for where BANY will go Monday, but I am very confident Monday will not be our biggest day. Bigger days lie ahead when we get a PR, a conference call, some press, and all the other stuff that comes along for backdoor plays like BANY. Heck, we don't even have an ANYI thread on SI yet.
IMO, we should get the ANYI SI page up and running this weekend since it is still entirely possible (no idea how likely) that ANYI could begin trading this week. Some great folks have been working on this for awhile, and I expect it to be a first class thread, so I do not encourage anyone else to set up a competing thread in the meantime. However, I believe that if anything changes (i.e. we don't get ANYI as our ticker symbol), we can change that after the thread has been created. I've seen this done on other threads.
Good luck all, I sure hope some others will share their thoughts on the SEC filing this weekend.
BTW, anyone else see that the Commerce Department department announced yesterday that they will begin monitoring e-commerce sales as a barometer of the U.S. economy? Imagine each month getting a government report updating how well e-commerce is doing over the previous month:) |
