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To: Pruguy who wrote (4479)	2/6/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: Cosmo Daisey	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Pru, To the contrary there are those of us who think the market is very simple. Here is a test: 14........15.........16 If you can read these numbers you are 1/2 way there. Which number is highest? Which number is lowest? Which number is in between? Good, you got them all right, you can be a successful investor if you keep it this simple. If you buy a stock at 14 and it's now 16 you know you have a winner. If you pay 16 and it's now 14 you have a loser, right? Sell the losers quickly, never ever add to a loser, and add to the winners and let them run. Sell the winner when it is a loser from the highest price that you have held it, not your position price. Why make it more complicated than this? Listen to what the market is telling you instead of what the analysis paralysis is telling you. I follow these rules successfully and others follow them too. Listen to what the market is telling you instead of what your ego is telling you. I positioned DELL on Friday @$98 and will add to the position if it moves higher, if it doesn't I will sell it. You may recall I sold it at $108 and change. You do the math. cdaisey@the-market-is-simple.com

To: Pruguy who wrote (4479)	2/6/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

People who think that stock prices exist in a vacuum are amusing to me. But that kind of "investing" habit is dangerous in the long run. Lots of people lost billions in various fly-by-night "hot" companies that were supported by little more than outrageous expectations of continued upward stock price movements. I' sure you remember companies like Boston Chicken and LEASCO to name only two. There are several statistically verifiable underpinnings of stock prices: long-term interest rates, perceived long-term growth in free cash flow, and the perceived riskiness of achieving those cash flows. When people "invest" based on timing the market or "momentum" investing they add several layers of noise to the market. You can see that effect with SOES "investors". I have been repeatedly warning people about AMZN on that basis. If you look at the company's cash flow statement you will see that it continues to experience negative cash flow from operations, and the activity that is supporting cash flow is the sale of its stock. But that kind of obvious, (no -- downright fluorescent!) red flag is invisible to people who pay no heed to a company's fundamentals. My advice once again: forget earnings -- they are a fiction created by accountants. Watch free cash flow. Ignore free cash flow at your peril. TTFN, CTC