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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5953)	2/6/1999 5:14:00 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 78780

Mike: I've heard that it's hand to hand combat in the supply boat business, with day rates dropping precipitously. Of course, the rates are pretty much dictated by the biggie, TDW (that, and supply and demand, of course). One brokerage firm absolutely feels that HMAR's (HMAR being a TDW competitor) earnings will come tumbling down this year. Numbers were taken down from somewhere between .50-1.00 to, I believe, .03 for this year by this one firm. Sorry I don't recall the exact figures. That's some downward revision! And, of course, if day rates do improve, those numbers will need be adjusted upward. TDW no question will be a survivor. I like GIFI, and will do more DD.

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5953)	2/6/1999 6:24:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Respond to of 78780

Thanks everyone for the discussion on oil stocks. I mostly follow tech stocks but trying to find value in the tech sector is next to impossible right now. Although after the last two days it might not be that long before they go back where they were in October. A person could have just about closed their eyes and picked out a three bagger four months ago on just about anything related to computers. I think there are a lot of similarities between oil stocks and disk drives about a year ago. Everyone was saying that all the smaller DD companies were going to go under but here it is a year later and they're still in business and most of them are well off their lows. One question that came to mind while filling up the car this morning. In winter months gas is mixed with 10% alcohol to prevent gas lines from freezing, at least in the colder areas of the country. Does anyone see much benefit from the usual increase in gas prices during the summer months? Regards, Don

To: Michael Burry who wrote (5953)	6/2/2010 5:49:59 PM
From: Walter Bagehot	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78780

Re: NE Interesting comments on the sector from way back when: Message 7694341 I am not at all familiar with the sector, but I don't really understand how pricing with some of these drilling companies operates. My assumption, if they are similar to shipping, is based on day rates or charters for a longer period. Therefore, buying at this stage might be buying in a tight market with strong (until now) demand for services that could be diluted by rig-building etc (caveat - I have no idea of the orderbook). That leaves me lost for a margin of safety in today's market. To be comfortable, I would have to understand how opex on each contract is derived, and what margin over break-even today's contracts are at, and where historical rates have been. Added to which, I don't know if I am even barking up the right tree...can anyone explain it further to me?