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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (5583)	2/6/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Good point. PS - I did those changes on my site this morning and all charts are updated. Note my comments under the picks area. Even though we dropped, I show many individual stocks could bounce short term before continueing the slide. I couldn't find many issues where the weekly and daily charts would line up for a good short. I hate this when I see the market doing things yet can't key in on a play to take advantage of it. This game gets really frustrating sometimes. <ng> I am not sure what to make of the way the XAU seems to be projecting a near term top at about the same time there won't be much left to prop up the rest of the market since the two usually move opposite each other. I am also disturbed by the way the utilities and the oils blew right through supports during their drops. Is this what is in store for the rest of the market. It just seems too coincidental that sectors are melting down one at a time, quietly with no one paying much attention to it. Maybe it is getting close to the time to refinance the house and start shorting the indexes. I can't put my finger on why, but I am starting to get afraid. I don't see the axe murderer in the hall but feel he is hiding in the shadows and will jump out when I least expect it. All my friends just disappeared one at a time so I have to go search the dark halls now, alone, walking backwards while wearing high heels without a flashlite. I'll be right back. PS-Do you here a sound like velcro tearing??? Bobby, is that you, David?? Is anyone there.... Lee

To: Challo Jeregy who wrote (5583)	2/6/1999 5:21:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ================================ Just checked the charts on the DOW and it appears that some chart patterns are in the process of dissolving in a few days. Such timing is fitting in with my SHORT-TERM analysis implying that a short-term BUY signal should arrive in a few days if the market continues down. BEARISH FLAG ------------------------ Lower trendline = LOWS of 1/25(9063) & 2/2(9198) Upper trendline = HIGHS of 1/27(9325) & 2/1(9431) POLE is about 350-400 points BULLISH WEDGE ---------------------------- UPPER TRENDLINE = HIGHs of 1/8(9648) & 2/1(9430) LOWER TRENDLINE = LOWs of 1/14(9088) & 1/25(9063) The upper trendline of this WEDGE is is same as the trendline from the all-time highs MAIN PITCHFORK(DECLINING) ------------------------------ PIVOT POINT of 11/23(9374) UPPER TINE around 9400-9450 for next week, and declining at a rate of about 100 DOW points per 2 weeks. Ok, the LOWER TRENDLINE of the BEAR FLAG will intersect the tendline off of the all-time highs(also the upper trendline of the BULL WEDGE) in about 2-3 days. On Friday the DOW pierced the LOWER TRENDLINE of the BEAR FLAG slightly but closed within the FLAG pattern. The pole of this BEAR FLAG is about 350-400 points so a significant sustained break to the downside of this FLAG would imply a price target near 9000. A rising flag is normally a bearish pattern. So if this BEAR FLAG materialises it should dissolve and start its decline as early as MONDAY, and the drop should be quick. This FLAG is within the larger BULLISH WEDGE. The lower trendline of the WEDGE is around 9000 for next week, so if the BEAR FLAG breaks down it DOW should head down towards the lower trendline of the WEDGE around 9000. At such point there could be a bounce to the upside. Now we move to the PITCHFORK. This BULL WEDGE is contained within this larger PITCHFORK. If there is a bounce off the 9000 support, mentioned above, then the UPPER TINE(around 9450-9400 & declining) could contain such a rebound. The above is also tying into my SHORT-TERM analysis and my cycle analysis, which is calling for a short-term bottom in 1-3 days, and then an upswing into early MARCH. So if the BEAR FLAG breaks down the drop should be quick and could possibly target 9000, and a rebound off of the lower trendline of the BULL FLAG to be contained within the PITCHFORK which is declining. A break of 9000 to the downside would negate the BULL WEDGE and imply that a weak rebound. Seeya