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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (3722)	2/7/1999 6:10:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9818

'Very interesting analysis here... - Roleigh >Date: Sat, 6 Feb 1999 15:02:36 -0800 (PST) >To: "Multiple recipients of list cpsr-y2-@cpsr.org " >< listserv-reply-error-@snyside.sunnyside.com > >Subject: Electricity Industry - NERC Reports;Hawkins >X-Comment: CPSR Year 2000 problem discussion list >X-Info: For listserv info write to listser-@cpsr.org with message HELP >X-Message-Id: < 2074724526155.ltk.02-@cpsr.org > > > Hello CPSR - > > I have been on your distribution list for about 10 months and have very > much appreciated the insights offered by your members. I am an independent > IS Consultant with 20+ years in the trade, mostly in the management of > large projects, having run a 300+ staff consulting group at one point in my > career with contracts up to $25 million. > > A recent assigment for a local hospital involved researching the "facts" > about what has been coming out of NERC, and Washington in general regarding > the electric industry. Of particular interest to this client is the > likelhood of disruption to the Northeast power industry. After spending > about a week crawling inside the NERC website, reprots and spreadsheets, I > have come to some very disturbing conclusions. The "percent complete" > methodology followed by NERC follows no standard project accounting > method I've experienced. It is misleading to the point of absurdity. > To excerpt from my report for this hospital client: > > <snip> > Percent Complete vs. Percent Done > The NERC reports rely on an average of the percent complete reported by the > individual participants and the average estimated completion date. As of > November 30, 1998 these averages for the three major tasks NERC has chosen > to report are: > > Task Ave. Estimated Completion Date Ave. Percent Complete > Inventory 8/25/98 96 > Assessment 11/16/98 82 > Remediation/Testing 6/6/99 44 > > The averages are calculated as the total percent complete or date divided > by the number of respondents. This number also combines all components of > the electric industry across all geographic regions such that a generating > plant in Idaho that is ahead of schedule will offset a distribution company > in Maine that is behind. As discussed earlier in this report, there are > fewer alternatives in the transmission and distribution components and that > progress in one component does not replace slippage in another. > > The average dates reported are also misleading. If the goal is remediation > of all mission critical systems by a certain date, then monitoring the > average completion date is inconclusive in monitoring progress. Every day > ahead of schedule on one component should not be used to offset slippage in >another > component. > > The meaning of these averages is further confused by some specific > instructions from NERC. The spreadsheet states: > > % Complete - Report as amount of work completed in each phase divided by > total amount of work to do in that phase.If no remediation and testing is >required > in an area that was inventoried and assessed, then show remediation and >testing as > 100% complete. > > This instruction has the effect of overstating the percent complete of a > participant in the remediation/testing task. Percent complete as used in > the NERC reports is the percentage of systems that have been tested,not > the percentage of the Y2K work that has been accomplished. There is a major > difference between the two. For example, if a company has 20 systems and 10 > of them did not require any remediation, they would report 50 percent > complete.This is extremely misleading as it implies that the 50 percent > remaining requires the same effort as the work completed.In actuality, no > inference about the size, scope or schedule for the remaining work can be > made. The NERC November report states that 44 percent (on average) of the > systems have been tested, it is not necessarily true that the remaining 56 > percent will require the same effort or can be completed at the same pace. > It is likely that the remaining work will require more effort and > resources than what has been reported to date, as many of the completed > systems required little or no remediation. > > The NERC spreadsheets do not contain any indication of the number of > systems that will require remediation, or the number of components that > have been assessed, determined to be non-compliant and must be replaced. > There is no estimate of the scope of the work left to be done in any of > the NERC reports. Without this information the likelihood of the > completion dates being met cannot be directly determined or even estimated. > > End snip > > I would very much appreciate comments from others in CPSR. Has anyone else >look at this??? It looks like political spin at its worst. Richardson, > Sec of Energy was quoted in the NY Times "We can be cautiously optimistic > about the prospects for the industry meeting its Y2K challenge'' and that > "tests and repairs are now more than half done". > > More than 1/2 done??? The details in the NERC report simply do not >support this. > > Rich Hawkins > Kingston Consulting, Inc. > www.kingstonconsulting.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Roleigh Martin ourworld.compuserve.com ( easy to remember alias is: webalias.com ) (A Web Site that focuses on Y2k threat to Utilities, Banks & more) To subscribe to free e-letter, fill in the form at the bottom of the page: ourworld.compuserve.com To unsubscribe, send "unsubscribe" message to roleigh_for_web-unsubscribe@egroups.com Print out this Y2K brochure to give to your neighbors, friends & relatives: ourworld.compuserve.com -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Create an e-mail group for your book club. Help & Info