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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (95571)	2/6/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

A company whose stock trades at several times sales needs more than mere profits -- it needs rapidly expanding profits. Even assuming market share growth, I'd wager you need the overall market to grow strongly as well. That's in dollar, not unit, terms. FD: I own two rounds of Dell puts, as I think they're priced for perfection -- and nobody's perfect. mb

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (95571)	2/6/1999 9:28:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

>>I repeat, economic profit is what is important, not revenues. << i repeat, revenues and earnings are related in this industry and a trend that brings revenues to approximate zero if it continues is something of a concern to anybody but those who, to quote jack, "can't handle the truth." companies don't all crack at the same time. eventually, the end result is the same, though. i'm not skirting anything. i told you. the fact it didn't sink in has nothing to do with this end of the conversation. units up 15%. asps down more than 15%. best buy, i believe, said 20%. common sense says at least that. ok, i'll do the math since some might not be able to do it... 1.15 * .80 = .92. that means that revenues would be down 8%. these are loose numbers. i'm not trying to prove the details, rather, i'm explaining the big picture. this is the big picture. not sure what the picture is 8" in the sand. oh, and remember, printers and monitors are now included in the asps more often than before. why? so the slow boats don't catch on to the facts of what is really happening. now, i didn't say dell is losing money now. i didn't say they would next year. i'm not even saying it is impossible for them to grow earnings at 50% or so for a while. what i am absolutely saying is that the probability of doing so is dropping quickly as the pie gets smaller. you can win the lottery by buying a ticket. dumb gamble, more often than not, but you can do it. the first law of holes is quite applicable here...