Hi Richard: Here it is, from Nightly Bussiness Report: "The golds are looking good."
"Market Monitor"-Mark Lebovit
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week in Mark Leibovit, editor and publisher of "The Volume Reversal Survey Market Letter" based in Sedona, Arizona, but we're pleased to have him in our studio tonight. And welcome back, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, EDITOR & PUBLISHER, VRSURVEY.COM: Always a
pleasure being here.
KANGAS: I understand you've gotten really modern and changed the name of your letter a little bit. What is it now?
LEIBOVIT: We are vrsurvey.com.
KANGAS: .com. I knew it.
LEIBOVIT: We're doing Internet services and hotlines. We got to reflect the times.
KANGAS: Understood and a probably a very wise move.
KANGAS: But you had a pretty wise annual forecast model last year. We have a graphic of what you were predicting last year right from the beginning of the year. And we can see that the pattern followed pretty much what happened, especially the year-end rally.
LEIBOVIT: Spectacular call at the end of the year. We were calling for a low on October 2 and the actual low was October 8. We were six days off. Early part of the year, what actually happened was the indexes went higher but the broad market, the advance/declines turned down. So actually the model was correct in reflecting the overall market.
KANGAS: Well, a lot of people are saying that the Super Bowl predictor was wrong last year because Denver won the Super Bowl last year, just like they did this year And the market was supposed to go down. You say the predictor was correct. Is that right?
LEIBOVIT: I believe so and it may be again right again this year. Now an interesting statistic last year. On the New York Stock Exchange, 57 percent of all stocks were down and on NASDAQ, two-thirds were down. Now that's not a bear market, I don't know what is.
KANGAS: So the averages might have been up but most stocks were down, therefore the Super Bowl predictor was correct.
LEIBOVIT: I think it was correct. And my model was correct, too.
KANGAS: Are you predicting that it's going to be correct this year, too?
LEIBOVIT: Well, I have a feeling there's a chance it could be.
KANGAS: Well, I've seen a, I've had a look at your first quarter forecaster. Let's have a look at that on the graphic.
LEIBOVIT: OK. OK.
KANGAS: And we can see it's very bullish looking.
LEIBOVIT: Well, now right now we are experiencing a correction and when volume changes to the upside and breadth improves, then this model kicks in. Until that time this is a theoretical projection. I have a feeling it still could be right and we could have a heck of a run into April. After that point though, the model says we can come off sharply.
KANGAS: That looks like 10,000 Dow, the way you've got this one.
LEIBOVIT: It might be. But again, let's wait for volume to come. This correction we're experiencing now could be over in a day or two but we'll know it. Volume reversal to the upside, positive breadth and we jump in.
KANGAS: OK. Now we are seeing a selloff, especially in the high-tech stocks. Can this affect the whole market?
LEIBOVIT: No question. Technology has led the whole mood for a couple three years now. If this doesn't clean up and if we continue to see poor breadth and technology weak, IBM continues to look bad just as one stock and we've been short for the last couple days, that's a bad sign.
KANGAS: Well, not only, we've got the combination of a selloff in the high- tech stocks and a lot of buying going on in natural resource stocks. The metals and oils are doing well. What does that mean?
LEIBOVIT: Well, it's a little early to get bullish on the oils. The oil service stocks are looking a little bit better. The golds are looking good. We are long some gold shares here. I have a long- standing projection old XAU Index, the gold and silver index, up to the high '90s and I think we're in the high 60's now.
KANGAS: So despite your bullish prediction for the first quarter as we just saw on the chart, after that you're looking for more damage?
LEIBOVIT: Well, the model is still being constructed but it looks like a zig- zag very choppy year and you're going to get a series of panics, I think, during the year. Maybe it's Y2K- related.
KANGAS: All right. Now the last time you were with us, August 14 of '98 you gave us some great stocks. Power Integration at 11. It's now 30. Acorn, 5 1/2 and still about the same. Fore Systems (NASDAQ:FORE) is down, 24, down to 16 now. That was the only real clinker you had. Rambus (NASDAQ:RMBS) at 61; it's now 75. You gave us Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) at 86. It's 127. Global Telesys at 48. It's 60. And
what is it, Net Bank (NASDAQ:NTBK) at 22. It's now 50. Are you out of all these or are you still with them?
LEIBOVIT: Out of them but I like the Internet banking stocks and on a pullback, I'm still looking at Net Bank. and another Internet banking stock called TeleBanc (NASDAQ:TBFC). There is still a lot of growth in that area.
KANGAS: OK, we've got another 35, 40 seconds for some suggestions as to what to buy despite the selloff going on.
LEIBOVIT: OK. Buy the golds. Newmont (NYSE:NEM), American Barrack , Placer Dome (NYSE:PDG), if nothing else as a hedge because there's some buying coming into them. I like gold stock Emisphere on the NASDAQ. It's around 17. I think it's going into the mid '20s.
KANGAS: Symbol.
LEIBOVIT: EMIS.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM). I think that's going up 10 or 20 points. Great stock. It was up today in fact. TWA (AMEX:TWA). It's around $6 under accumulation.
KANGAS: It was up today, 7/8 I believe...
LEIBOVIT: We bought it a couple days ago. Looked like a turnaround. Boeing (NYSE:BA) looks higher.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: Under a bit of accumulation. I like Electronics for Imaging
(NASDAQ:EFII).
KANGAS: So selective but not super bullish.
LEIBOVIT: Not super bullish but if I get a volume reversal, I'm buying the Dow because if that model's right, I want to catch 10,000.
KANGAS: Mark, thanks very much.
LEIBOVIT: My pleasure.
KANGAS: My guest Mark Leibovit, editor and publisher of the vrsurvey.com.
LEIBOVIT: You got it. Thank you. |
