To: Stu E. who wrote (10077 ) 2/10/1999 9:46:00 PM From: Samuel R Orr Read Replies (3) | Respond to
Stu, I didn't look at this thread for a few days, and will try to answer your questions as honestly as I can. I didn't buy IDTI because of the WinChip, but because they've diversified out of SRAM. The WinChip still MIGHT produce some revenue, but isn't likely to be very profitable. AMD got its act in gear and began fabricating large numbers of K6-2 chips that they sold for twentyfive percent less than equivalent Intel Pentiums. Intel responded by marketing a basic Pentium core device it named the Celeron and subsequently the more suitable Celeron A, bringing prices down to deny profit to AMD, and raising the speed required to stay in the game to today's 400-450 MHz. The WinChip worked and consumed low power, but 200-230 MHz was about the top speed. When the WinChip 4 emerges by mid-99, it will go faster than WinChip 2, but prices are down in the mud and I'm not sure IDTI will make money selling it. From my view, the semiconductor industry will recover, and may already have begun doing so. That tide will lift all boats, and I believe IDTI's communications and other specialty chips will do well. Fortunately, the WinChip 4 isn't necessary. Intel might have tolerated Cyrix/National Semiconductor and IDTI(both of whom are comparatively small and not a real challenge) dabbling in the sub-thousand dollar PC market, but wouldn't do so for AMD. The fallout of the AMD/Intel marketing struggle over microprocessors has unintentionally eaten IDTI's WinChip lunch. If AMD goes belly-up, the Justice Department might possibly go after Intel, but as long as they don't sell below their actual costs, it's mostly legal hardball. The explosive internet growth yet to come, and the fact I heard the other day that 70% of the world's population still hasn't answered its first phone call, guarantees the integrated circuit market has a long way to go. For those reasons, right or wrong, I'm long on IDTI and several other semiconductor companies. I don't trade, and follow a simple theory: buy low and sell high. If you figure out how to consistently do it, please tell me. My take is my own, and momentum traders, chartists(so-called DOW theory technicians), and stock touts will refute it. Figure out something sensible for yourself and follow it. The best of luck, and I look for $17-20 within 18 months. Sam
