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To: Pruguy who wrote (47197)2/6/1999 10:03:00 PM
From: Kenya AA  Respond to of 97611
 
Hi Pruguy: Long time, no meet! You are right, of course, about the internuts - but not all of them. I left them out because I was talking about "Old Tech" (a la Cramer).

I agree about Asia bottoming, but when things get going I don't think the money will be spent on building and infrastructure. I think it will be spent on technology. The pace of technology is such that it's very easy to fall behind. Therefore if you're trying to make a comeback, that's where you have to spend first. Physical infrastructure is becoming less and less important, i.e. shopping on the internet. Telecommunications is another good example - no emerging third world country is going to bother putting up telephone poles. As for here, all the job growth is in services and tech and, as far as I know, no one's trying to tackle Y2K with a backhoe.

I think the only reason the cyclicals are showing signs of life is because tech profits are being parked there (pretty safe - they can't go any lower) temporarily - not because of any fundamental reasons. As soon as the tech shakeout is over, it'll all come rolling back (albeit at lower prices). It's all about top line growth and earnings - cyclicals will never match the growth rate of tech.

....it has been 4 years since value beat growth and it may be their day soon.........

I agree, but it will only be "a day."

As always, JMO.

K