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To: Cyrus who wrote (23314)2/7/1999 1:15:00 AM
From: BGR  Respond to of 50167
 
Cyrus,

I believe that England already had a higher rate when compared to the EU, so it's lowering of rate may not be followed up by other EU rate cuts.

-Apratim.



To: Cyrus who wrote (23314)2/7/1999 9:15:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
Britain's reputation for high prices is an indication of just how uncompetitive parts of the economy still are Expensive



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WHEN he first arrived at 11 Downing Street, one of the first questions Gordon Brown asked his Treasury officials was: Why are prices so high in Britain? British travellers often discover that internationally traded goods—from groceries to computers and jeans—are much cheaper abroad. They return home convinced that they are routinely overcharged in their own country.

The current strength of the pound clearly accentuates this impression. Yet the fact that the price of many foreign-made goods has not fallen in Britain, as the pound has risen, indicates that something more than currency movements is at work. Ministers now say that importers have taken to referring to Britain as “Treasure Island”, a tribute to the exceptional profits they are now reaping.

The government has not hidden its concern. The Office of Fair Trading (OFT) is shortly due to report on two high-profile inquiries into the cost of new cars and the profitability of supermarkets. The chancellor has successfully pressed for an EU study examining why prices continue to vary widely across Europe—despite the establishment of a single market. Meanwhile, the consumer affairs minister, Kim Howells, will soon announce the setting up of an official price-monitoring unit, aimed at providing information to consumers.

Evidence that Britain is a relatively soft market for a wide range of products is not hard to find. An OECD study to be published later this month will confirm that the price of many widely traded goods and services is higher in Britain than in most other developed countries. The new figures are likely to be even sharper than the OECD's previous price comparison published four years ago. This showed that Britons paid 56% more than Americans for furniture and carpets, 54% more for hotels and restaurants, 31% more for sporting goods, 29% more for cars and motor cycles.

Nor is it just comparisons with the United States which show domestic consumers at a disadvantage. The European Commission's latest study of car prices, published on February 1st, found that cars in Britain currently cost up to 50% more than in other European countries. In fact, as consumer organisations have found, a whole range of goods and services are more expensive in Britain (see chart).






Why is this? It is certainly not a reflection of wealth. Britain's national income per head is about 10% lower than Germany's and 5% lower than France's. But prices stay high, even of food products like beef and pork that are in such surplus that farmers complain they are being driven to the wall. As popular resentment has grown, politicians have understandably taken up consumer complaints of price gouging. The reality, however, is more complex than political sloganising suggests.

Many reasons why

Take petrol retailing. In his last budget Mr Brown criticised fuel companies for profiteering: “The oil price has fallen by 25% in the past six months: a benefit enjoyed by oil companies which has yet to be passed on to consumers.” Two months later, to the Treasury's embarrassment, the Office of Fair Trading reported that competition among petrol retailers was fierce and that real gross margins had, pace Mr Brown, fallen by a third from 6p to 4p a litre in the past seven years. There is, in fact, a simple reason why petrol prices remain relatively high in Britain. Tax now accounts for 85% of the pump price of four-star leaded petrol, one of the highest levels in Europe.

Journalists who have attacked British supermarkets for ripping off housewives may also be in for a disappointment. A Sunday Times survey found that the cost of many popular food items was up to 40% higher in Britain than in European supermarkets. The OFT's report into supermarket profitability to be published later this month, however, is unlikely to find much evidence that the four biggest firms, Tesco, Sainsbury, Safeway and Asda, are abusing their dominant position. A reference to the Monopolies and Mergers Commission (MMC) may be ordered on political grounds but Whitehall sources are sceptical about what, if anything, it would achieve.

Net profit margins of British supermarkets, averaging 6%, are double those of supermarkets on the continent. But returns on capital are as much as 5% lower than for their European counterparts. The average supermarket in Britain is roughly half the size of an American supermarket, and two-thirds the size of a typical French store, which limits economies of scale.

High land prices make it harder to build mega-stores in Britain. But even small retail outlets face high costs. Bizarrely, it is more expensive to rent shopping-space in the nondescript south London suburb of Croydon than in the plushest shopping streets of Milan, Stockholm or Dublin. A study by an estate agency, Healey & Baker, conducted last year ranked London's Oxford Street as the third most expensive shopping mile in the world after New York's Madison Avenue and Hong Kong's Causeway Bay. A recent McKinsey report on productivity found that, on average, selling-space in Britain was 40% more expensive than in America and 20% more than in France.

Part of the explanation for high rents is the strictness of British planning laws. For example, it recently took Costco, an American-style discount warehouse club, two years to obtain outline planning permission for a new store. Costco is now planning to open another 47 new warehouses in Britain, selling more than 3,500 products at discounts ranging up to 40%. Costco's managing director, Jim Murphy, says, however, that his company faces considerable difficulties, not only obtaining planning permission but also securing supplies from manufacturers reluctant to see their goods sold at a discount.

Supermarkets may eventually be reprieved by the competition authorities. But the car industry deserves to get a much rougher ride. Practices such as threats to withhold supply from dealers who fail to toe the line on prices have helped sustain Britain's dubious record as one of the most expensive countries in the world in which to buy a new car. The OFT, prodded by a parliamentary report which lambasted car dealers, retailers and importers for a variety of anti-competitive practices, is on the verge of referring the industry, worth £24 billion ($40 billion) a year, to the MMC for a full inquiry. A decision is likely to be announced next month.

Weak British competition laws are undoubtedly a large part of the reason for high prices. As the MMC's recent report into the electrical-appliance industry showed, covert price-fixing is not uncommon across much of British retailing. Over the years the OFT has pursued hundreds of price-fixing cases in products ranging from bicycles and birdcages to vacuum cleaners and video cassettes. Yet the lack of penalties meant that all that happened was that the offending company got away with an assurance of future good behaviour. This lack of enforcement powers will be tackled when the new Competition Act comes into force next year. It has much stiffer penalties, including fines of up to 10% of the value of turnover, and allows for civil action to be brought against the offending company.

Unfortunately, there continues to be a lack of focus in Whitehall about consumer issues. Mr Howells stresses that “the welfare of consumers should be at the heart of government policy.” But in reality responsibility is widely dispersed across Whitehall. In this complex web, the consumer's voice is often drowned out by entrenched interests.

Not all consumers, of course, focus primarily on price. Some are happy to accept a trade-off between higher levels of service and prices. Marks and Spencer built up their iconic position in British retailing by operating a no-questions-asked policy, allowing shoppers to return goods. The McKinsey report points out that it takes about 10% longer to pay for goods in a typical American food store. British supermarkets employ many more low-paid workers at check-out counters than foreign rivals.

British consumers can also be dozy about spotting opportunities to buy cheaply, even when they do exist. Two months ago the chief executive of Intel, Craig Barrett, criticised Dixon's, Britain's dominant distributor of personal computers, for overcharging, claiming that its pricing policies were stunting the market. Compaq and Fujitsu have made similar criticisms. This is another clear example of lack of competition leading to high prices in the High Street. But Britons could buy more cheaply, through superstores or direct mail order—they just seem to have been slower than other Europeans to do so. As a nation of shopkeepers, Britain's reputation may be as keen as it was in Napoleon's day. But as shoppers, Britons clearly have some way to go.





To: Cyrus who wrote (23314)2/7/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: GROUND ZERO™  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
I think you may be right, but for the moment, there may be choppiness ahead.....

GZ



To: Cyrus who wrote (23314)2/7/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: Investor2  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 50167
 
Re: "With the market internals being what they are I agree with a correction, ..."

It seems that nearly everyone on SI (including me) is expecting a correction. Hmmmm, I wonder what that means.

Best wishes,

I2



To: Cyrus who wrote (23314)2/7/1999 11:56:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF  Respond to of 50167
 
Cyrus you wrote <<One of the realizations of the previous week was that the economy in the US is not as week as economists had thought, as Ike says that will increase profits. >>

It is just that I was a little too early...ggggg





February 7, 1999

Analysts Bullish on '99 Earnings

By RICHARD A. OPPEL Jr.

Now that fourth-quarter earnings are mostly in the books, it is clear
that the worst fears about last summer's emerging-markets panic
did not pan out. Indeed, it suddenly seems that many naysaying
forecasters are painting a far brighter earnings landscape for 1999.

At Merrill Lynch, economists recently raised their forecast for earnings
growth of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index to
3.5 percent in 1999, up from a previous prediction, in mid-December, of
a 5 percent drop. That's an 8.5-percentage point swing in less than two
months.

The change resulted from "continued strength in the economy and less
pressure on profit margins, which is the result of continued restructuring,"
said Gerald D. Cohen, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch.

Merrill is far from alone in its optimism. "I'm very bullish on corporate
earnings," said Byron Wien, United States strategist at Morgan Stanley
Dean Witter. "The economy has a lot of momentum, and I'm optimistic
earnings are going to exceed expectations."

Among strategists, the average estimate for that growth is 4.1 percent for
companies in the S&P 500, versus 0.2 percent in 1998. according to
IBES International, a research firm. And among the industries in the index,
the engines are likely to be technology, health care and perhaps energy --
a huge 1998 loser that most analysts see stabilizing in 1999.

That is good news for investors, especially with the stock market at
record levels and valuations. In the absence of lower interest rates, better
profits are probably the best catalyst for more market gains.

Indeed, some strategists suggest that the factors that dampened earnings
in last year's third quarter -- the first time in seven years that profits
declined for American corporations -- have proved extremely short-lived.
Edward Kerschner, a Paine Webber strategist who expects profit growth
of 5 percent to 8 percent in 1999, contends that the poor third quarter
resulted from several coincidental factors, including the market plunge in
August, the General Motors strike and a steep drop in oil earnings.

Yes, emerging markets still gyrate. But in the case of GM, the company
has already stunned industry analysts by suggesting last month that its
earnings could top $10 a share in 1999 if the company meets aggressive
financial and production targets. And many analysts do not think oil prices
can fall much below their current $12 level.

Meanwhile, Wall Street analysts, who estimate profits for individual
companies and tend to be far more optimistic than the strategists, are
forecasting aggregate profit growth of 17.2 percent for the companies in
the S&P 500, versus the strategists' estimate of 4.1 percent, according to
IBES The gap between the two groups' forecasts is generally far less.

But analysts are already starting to scale back their estimates, as has often
been the case in the past. The analysts tracked by IBES lowered their
first-quarter profit-growth forecasts for S&P 500 companies to 4.4
percent as of Jan. 28, down from 5.5 percent a week earlier.

Even given the customary volatility of such forecasts, the change
represented a surprisingly large reduction in such a short time, said Joseph
Abbott, an equity strategist at IBES.

Why are analysts optimistic?

In technology, they see continuing strong sales of personal computers,
software and semiconductors -- and they know that slack overseas
demand in 1998 could make this year's numbers look that much better.
IBES estimates are for white-hot earnings growth of 35.6 percent for the
industry.

Health care is getting help from continued good results at pharmaceutical
companies, which have been coming up with an array of new drugs. IBES
expects 15.9 percent earnings growth for the year.

One big turnaround sector is likely to be financial companies, with
expected earnings growth of 17.7 percent -- although the gain would be rom last year's disappointing numbers, which were dragged down by
third-quarter disasters in emerging markets and hedge funds.

While oil prices could fall again, further depressing energy stocks, some
analysts think the industry may have bottomed. Kerschner calculates that
if earnings in the industry had been flat in the fourth quarter, instead of
declining over 63 percent as analysts estimate they did, total domestic
corporate profit growth would have been about twice as high for the
period.

Still, strategists predict that several sectors could be disappointments this
year, particularly two that can suffer in periods of slow growth: basic
materials and commodity companies and capital equipment suppliers like
the Case Corp., Deere & Co. and Caterpillar Inc. "That's where the real
vulnerability is," said Chuck Hill, director of research at First Call in
Boston.