To: H James Morris who wrote (38486 ) 2/7/1999 11:12:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 164684
12 squirrelly. For investors who, like us, believe that we're still in the second or third inning of this ball-game and that Amazon.com are the '98 Yankees, we'd be looking past the trees in the foreground and focusing on the forest. We still think there is plenty of chance to build positions in this Internet Blue Chip at these levels. AMZN should be a core Internet holding. Move Over James, It's Bond, Amazon Bond AMZN raised $1.25 billion from a private placement offering (to lucky and qualified institutional buyers) of convertible subordinated debt. The deal was initially planned to raise $500 million, but the size was increased due to significant customer demand. The notes are due in 2009 and carry a 4.75% interest rate. The notes are convertible into shares at $156.05 (currently, a 33% premium above price). The notes received a triple -C-plus rating from S&P. Make no mistake, this placement as extremely important. It accomplishes several goals simultaneously; it adds even more flexibility to Amazon's acquisition plan (now they have two great currencies, dollars and AMZN stock, and plenty of both), it provides some nice working capital with which to buy/build distribution centers and inventory (and other back-end assets that are key to Amazon's 1999 maturation), and, of course, it creates a sense of permanence and staying power that large retailers and manufacturers like to see in an important distribution partner. Expect to see Amazon's focus shift markedly toward the infrastructure build out in 1999. From now on, its all about fulfillment, not customer acquisition (increasing returns will take care of that…) Books, Music & A Whole Lot More Amazon continues its expansion in cyberspace, offering a multitude of gifts (far beyond books, music and video) for Valentine's Day: pajamas, boxers, games, wallets, purses, and of course, the standard chocolate and roses. All of this continues under Amazon's customer-centric philosophy, with gift editors offering up suggestions for undecided/clueless shoppers. Looking past Feb. 14 th , AMZN continues to expand Shop The Web announcing a new household accessories deal, to add the travel, electronics, toys/games, clothing/accessories and computer hardware choices. America Online (AOL) AOL's Q4 Reflects “Consistency And Predictability” AOL reported their December quarter results last week, beating almost all of our estimates in what widely believed to be a strong quarter on the back of great advertising and commerce momentum during the Holiday season. Below are some of our take-aways: AOL's December quarter performance was embodied in management's own use of the phrase consistent and predictable on the call; growth was strong in subscriber adds, in-line on the advertising and commerce side, and much better on the operating margin side, thanks entirely to a significant gross margin expansion that probably won't be repeated for the rest of the fiscal year (June year end). All-in, however, this quarter continues to shine a path towards the manageability of the business model and the “dials and levers” analogy the company and we have spoken about for the last few quarters. Though ad/commerce revenue didn't surprise as (perhaps) some investors thought it might given the huge upside in some other Internet notables (like Yahoo! and Amazon), that was more than offset by the great gross margin increases AOL was able to pull off. And, of course, subs keep chugging along, which is the best leading indicator of future growth we can think of. To be specific: AOL's EPS Surprise Was Driven Almost Entirely By A Big Gross Margin Increase