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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Zeman who wrote (5961)	2/7/1999 1:55:00 PM
From: Don Earl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78444

Hi Bill, Re IDTC I agree there are a lot of things that look attractive, but I wouldn't touch that chart with a long stick. Stochastics are at close to 100%, the trend lines are all down, and the recent volume down with the increase in price is bad news. Any short term play would be like trying to catch a falling knife. Nothing encouraging in the form 4s and 144s either. The increased short interest in January might favor a squeeze though. If it doesn't break out in the next day or two, I'd look for a retest of recent lows. Regards, Don

To: Bill Zeman who wrote (5961)	2/7/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: cfimx	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78444

bill, you make this sound wonderful<G>...but we should start from a sound factual basis. >>IDTC has a book value of 10 1/2, $6.50/sh in cash, a asset/liability ratio of almost 4 and a debt/equity ratio of .046. At 16 1/8 with such huge internet potential I see VERY little downside risk, and I look for the low 20's in 1-3 months and $30 b4 Y2K.<< 1) From the latest 10q I see about $245 million of equity on the books. I see 35.7 million diluted shares (weighted average). I use this because this is one of those option loving companies apparently. When I divide this, I get $6.90 of bv per share. Where do you get the $10.50? Please don't say Yahoo.<G> Never mind that $75 million is goodwill, and $31 million is other assets. This is why I think those of you who even look at bv are barking up the WRONG tree. And don't count on bv per share staying even there. This company, after all, LOVES to issue shares. 2) You state that the company has $6.50 in cash. Well I see about $151 million of the good stuff on the books. Divide that by 35.7 mill and you get $4.20 of cash. Not bad, but far from $6.50. But before you think you have hit the motherlode here, take a look at the RIGHT side of the balance sheet. Over there, you will discover $105 million of debt and interest payable, and $14 million of capital lease obligation, a debt equivalant. Add those two and you get $119 million of obligations. Subtract that from $151 million and you get all of $32 million. That leaves you with less than $1 a share of NET cash, which is how ONE should look at a company. We haven't even looked at potential OFF BALANCE SHEET liablilities. But wait. This company is a voracious USER of cash. So does it really make sense to, in essence, BANK that < $1 a share of cash because it is EXCESS cash and therefore distributable? Or are we to believe that management can use it in a value enhancing way? Or could an acuirer use the cash as part of a bid for the company? Nope. Nope. And Nope. So Bill, as much as I want to call up my broker on Sunday and put an order in on this thing, I thought it only appropriate that we start from a FACTUAL basis.<G> >>I see VERY little downside risk, and I look for the low 20's in 1-3 months and $30 b4 Y2K.<< Bill, over here on the value thread, we don't pretend to be able to PREDICT the future, and don't expect others to be much good at it either.<G> Now can I interest anyone in a petroleum stock of some sort?<G> twist...hoping i put enough grins in...<G> PS: OH btw Bill...welcome to the value thread!!!<G>

To: Bill Zeman who wrote (5961)	3/31/1999 9:10:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78444

Bill: re IDTC. Could you give us an updated opinion here on the value thread for IDTC, now that it has moved up a bit? I've sold 1/6 of my position, holding remaining. I defer to your knowledge of this company and the outlook for its products. (note: this msg. is in response to post #6506). -g- Bill, if I were you in responding, I'd be VERY careful about reporting stated book value. We're in a BV discussion now, and I wrongly used Yahoo BV figures for IDTC in my Feb. posts. And this error was easily and quickly ascertained by some of the people who actually do some DD before they buy their stocks. I was, and am, chagrined. But on the other hand, the stock was a value stock possibility nevertheless-- IMO of course. ps: Have you read, and do you recommend, Howard Jonas' book "On a Roll: from Hot Dog Rolls to Hi-Tech Billions" for IDTC investors to get a better perspective on the company? (I'm thinking about ordering it.) Paul Senior