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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (930)	2/9/1999 12:35:00 AM
From: HVN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3376

Dennis, from my experience in wireless voice and data, the #1 criteria today is coverage. People get annoyed with transmission rates, but they are willing to take slower rates than poorer coverage. With good coverage, they can at least get some connection - and they tend to use wireless when they can't connect to a wire. So, there'd better be a connection. Some day, we'll have great coverage, and great transmission speeds. But it's not available today. I guess with Iridium, it's great that they have great coverage - the transmission speed will catch up over time. As for GStar and MCOM, I don't know about either's technology - however, I doubt they are compatible - and frankly, I don't think their business plans either - MCOM isn't clear if it wants to go after the home market or the Business market. And frankly, they're a bit player - limited regional coverage and decent transmission speed. THey think they've got a winner. Omnipoint thought the same. Omnipoint thought they'd go after the regional market with their limited coverage. Little did they understand how mobile the American wireless user is - especially in the NE. And even if the American user is not particularly mobile, Omnipoint's competitors are offering superior coverage at similar rates. So, that forces Omnipoint into a lower price bracket and eventually into oblivionn - either drivein out of business or forced to sell out - most probably to a European player. Same with MCOM, going after a regional strategy, and risk getting eaten by forces so much bigger than they, they'll be squashed like an ant. If they had technology that was compatible to others available or under development, then maybe they'd be in a position to be bought out. Also, apparently the large wireless data players have analysed MCOM's business plan and pricing structure and truly believe it's not financially sustainable. But then, I could be totally wrong - however, when it comes to wireless, I'm generally right a lot more than I'm wrong.

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (930)	2/17/1999 2:30:00 AM
From: Dragonfly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3376

I am not a tech, and I don't have the product knowledge, but if Metricom devices could be feed from satellites rather then telephone pole poles I think it could be a great marriage. Is that possible? Yes and No. Yes: A future Metricom device could work with a LEO sat system to provide wireless data. No: However, launching a LEO sat system requires about $4Billion and the modems would be MUCH more expensive. None of the current and proposed Sat based data systems are mobile oriented: Teledesic will require stationary bases, Cyberstar is presuming that too, and its GEO (geostationary) not LEO (low earth orbit). Something like data thru ICO, Globalstar, Iridium would be possible, but then you are looking at paying by the minute (again as with CDPD) -- at least here, paying by the minute makes sense. These guys have put $9Billion and $4Billion+ (I, G) for their networks and its a very expensive thing to do direct to sat comms for a mobile platform. So the poletops are cheaper, have LESS Regulation (you wouldn't beleive what it takes to get a sat network thur the regulatory bodies of all the countries in the world) are faster and would be much cheaper for the customer. That said, ultimately (20 years from now maybe) instead of the Metricom type network we will be using mobile LEO data coms. Its THE way to go, so you are right on the money in your thinking-- the global coverage, and efficient structure (when you have 10s of millions of customers) make it the economic and technological solution of the future. Just not viable in the near term. From a technical only perspective, Globalstar is the more likely partner because they use a spread spectrum encoding method (I* is the less efficient TDMA) and therefore this theoretical future modem could switch frequencies and antannae setups to talk direct to a G* sat in the future. Since G* has already done the regulatory things, a device that uses the Metricom network if in coverage area and a G* sat if not would be possible. But you'd be switching between $30 flat rate (metricom) and $1/minute (G). When the cost of talking to an LEO sat comes down (which is really the infrastructure cost of launching the sats and maintaining the network divided by the bandwidth of a given sat) then this will be more viable. Maybe I was pessimistic and it will be more viable in 7-10 years with second or third generation G networks. Does this answer your question? I can clarify if you want. I've done extensive research in LEO voice communications, particularly the technology involved. Dragonfly