To: Frank Ellis Morris who wrote (22632 ) 2/7/1999 8:45:00 PM From: Sonki Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 27012
frank,The Queen of the Bulls By Stacey L. Bradfordadforce.imgis.com |2.0|34|21719|1|1|misc=2037119106; Wall Street's most prominent bull just gave the laggard small-cap stocks a much needed vote of confidence. "There's real good value in small caps," Cohen says. She's recommending investors increase their holdings in small- and mid-cap stocks and decrease their big-cap companies. "Small-cap stocks typically perform well when investors are confident the economy will grow," she explains. And she is convinced the economy will do so throughout 1999. (The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Jan. 22) Investors need to choose their investments carefully in 1999, Cohen says. She is recommending people buy into the banking, energy and semiconductor industries. Banks are selling at a price-to-earnings ratio below their 10-year average, energy demand should be increasing and strong computer sales should make the inventory glut for semiconductors a nonissue. (The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Jan. 22) What's Cohen's opinion on the Internet bubble? "Our feeling is the 'Internets' are real," she says. "They've already made an enormous change in how business is transacted. The question is how do you value them, and the honest answer is I don't know." (The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Jan. 24) Biography CALL HER ABBY BULLISH COHEN. Because that's generally what she's been since first becoming a strategist at Drexel Burnham Lambert in 1983. Now, as co-chair of the investment policy committee for Goldman Sachs, she looks at measures like earnings growth relative to inflation to formulate her market predictions. Mostly, Cohen's been right. In 1998, she correctly advised her clients to remain in equities even as the market fell nearly 20% from July to October. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, the stock market came roaring back, and Abby's customers were thankful for her sage advice. The same was true in 1996. While many of her colleagues predicted a correction, Cohen banged the drum for equities, citing low inflation and rising earnings. Colleagues should know by now that Cohen isn't afraid to be different. She recalls an analysts meeting early in her career at New York's University Club, when the doorman let all the men in but blocked her path. Women aren't allowed, said he. Cohen told the doorman she was going inside anyway. "If you want to stop me, go ahead," she told him. She was the only female analyst at the meeting. The influential pundit has been at Goldman since 1990 and made partner in 1998. Cohen was perhaps the first to make the observation in 1998 that the market had begun moving in a "staircase pattern." She explained, "There is a staircase pattern to the market, where substantial price increases (and declines) are telescoped into short periods of time and are then followed by an extended trading range in which share price indexes are choppy but trendless." This theory of market movement has now become accepted by many on the Street. Another favorite analogy of hers is that the U.S. economy is like a supertanker which moves steadily ahead. That comparison came in handy in 1998 as many smaller ships were sinking. According to our latest peek into her portfolio, Cohen's asset allocation consists of 72% stocks, 25% bonds, no cash and 3% commodities. She says she is "bullish, but not as ebulliently bullish" as she was last year. For 1999, she believes the earnings of the S&P 500 will increase to 1275 and the DJIA will reach 9850. Let's hope she's right again. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------