To: badon518 who wrote (4624 ) 2/7/1999 12:17:00 PM From: Dave Dickerson Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
CMGI Invest once, profit everywhere Red Herring Online February 5, 1999 Although it's taken Wall Street's elite a long time to come around, investors are finally getting a grip on the value proposition behind CMGI (CMGI). The one-time College Marketing Group Inc. (hence the initials) is basically a publicly traded Internet venture capital fund with current investments in over 20 Internet startups. Having made a name for itself through investments in GeoCities (GCTY) and Lycos (LCOS), CMGI has been on the road promoting itself as a safer way to play the Internet. Now, all of that marketing seems to have paid off. Suddenly, institutional investors who missed the major move in Internet stocks in 1998 are seeing CMGI as a core holding -- partly because it showed strong profitability last quarter, partly because they've been impressed by recent presentations the company made at investment conferences, but mostly because CMGI spreads out the risk of investing in Internet stocks by offering a public markets investment opportunity across a broad range of pre-IPO potential blockbusters. And because CEO Dave Wetherell and his management team are some of the smartest cookies on the Net, the risks investors are taking are less about execution and more about whether CMGI will be smart enough, or lucky enough, to have invested in the next Lycos, GeoCities, or Reel.com (now a subsidiary of Hollywood Entertainment [HLYW]) through its @Ventures venture capital arm. With exit strategies that aim for monster initial public offerings, the potential to participate in spectacular gains on tiny investments -- a game that the VC community figured out a long time ago -- is just an online trade away. "I think we can still consider the stock relatively undervalued," says Ted Kunzog, analyst and senior editor with Internet Stock News. "Although using the term 'value' in Internet stocks is always a tough measure." Tough measure is right. CMGI's earnings can dip far into or out of the plus or minus columns, depending on whether the company engages in "liquidity events" during its reporting period. For October 1998, investors saw just how rosy things could be: net income increased to $38.6 million from $2.7 million in just one quarter when the company liquidated stock in GeoCities and sold its interest in Reel.com. Now, with at least another $1 billion in negotiable securities to be liquidated at any time, investors have seen the light and pushed the stock through the roof. But with a hot IPO market that's got Internet fever written all over it again this year, a bet on even more profitable "liquidity events" could be a good bet indeed. ALSO CONSIDER: BLUEFLY Hold your fire, but we believe that Bluefly (BFLY), an online outlet mall that sells designer clothing and has virtually no revenues, could be the next breakout stock in the Internet space. We realize that such an early-stage company -- it was just reinvented six months ago from a bricks-and-mortar golf apparel company -- might be a bit of a stretch to buy into. But a market cap of just $40 million for a pure play e-commerce company with alliances across all the major portals, a dynamite management team, and a relatively untapped online retail category is downright cheap. Bluefly could really be buzzing by the end of the year. DAVE DICKERSON