To: Jim Oravetz who wrote (10078 ) 4/21/1999 1:00:00 PM From: Jim Oravetz Respond to of 11555
Most chip executives expect industry to fully recover in two years, says survey A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc. Story posted 2 p.m. EST/11 a.m., PST, 4/20/99 SAN JOSE -- Semiconductor industry executives are becoming increasingly optimistic about industry growth over the next year or two, according to a survey released today by firm Ernst & Young LLP. In a survey of 312 senior-level executives (vice presidents and above) across the United States, a vast majority of 84% expect the industry to return to its historically high growth rate within two years, while 49% expect the market to bounce back in the next 12 months. "The survey shows that the semiconductor industry is on the rebound, a confirmation of what we have been expecting for next year," said Stephen E. Almassy, national director of Ernst & Young's Technology, Communication & Entertainment practice in San Jose. "The study also sheds light on the key issues on the minds of industry executives, points to growth trends within the industry and identifies key markets that will benefit from this growth." While the surveyed managets hold different opinions about the reasons for anticipated growth, 42% say that technological innovation will provide the most significant competitive advantage for companies in the industry. Partnerships, at 22% and being first to market, at 19%, were the next most commonly cited factors for success. Virtually all executives who were polled--98%--believe the demand for more processing speed will increase in the next five years. "The ability of chip companies to create cutting-edge products and, more importantly, bring them to market quickly and in large volumes is going to determine their success or failure," said Patrick Hyek, a semiconductor industry services partner at Ernst & Young. According to 38% of the executives, telecommunications infrastructure is expected to serve as a key driver of semiconductor industry expansion over the next five years. The extreme growth in the Internet that is driving the evolution and growth of the telecommunications sector will in turn drive explosive growth in semiconductor applications. "It has been clear for some time that the Internet, data networks and wireless technologies are experiencing hyper-growth," added Hyek. "What our analysis has shown is that much of the future expansion will simultaneously drive -- and be facilitated by -- advances in semiconductor technology." Just 17% of respondents said that either consumer and information appliances (such as DVD and digital phones) or industrial applications would represent the key drivers of future growth for the semiconductor industry. In addition, fully 86% of the executives surveyed see industry consolidation increasing over the next five years, with more than 40% expecting the consolidation to be significant. "The marketplace is ripe for consolidation as companies seek innovative ways to participate in future high growth segments of the market and improve profitability," said Hyek. "The winners will be those companies that set themselves apart through product innovation, but that can also leverage strategic partnerships and supply chain management to get ahead." +++++++ This seems to bode well, finally, for IDTI and their communications IC's going forward a few years. Maybe enough to make them a target for a takeover -- and rid shareholders of the underperforming senior management team that has promised so much but done nothing effective the last few years. Jim