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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (36983)	2/7/1999 12:17:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

PS; if prices don't recover quickly - this is the ineveitable result & cure. As mentioned, the current domestic shut in crisis has not shown up in statistics as yet; add these incredible numbers into the future equation if something isn't done soon. The longer this situation goes on; the more dramatic the ''spike'' correction will be. The ''manageability'' of the crisis will soon get out of control. Terrible for American workers and business - who will be totally unprepard to factor in a huge spike in Crude prices into their all ready Earnings hyped models. Think the Airline industry, or trucking industry could handle a unseen spike in Crude prices ? Here's what we have to look forward to: It will be an incredible windfall for a few ( Intnl Oils, select Crude price proxied Driller & Service stocks etc.) but terrible news for the US as a whole. It will be the dramatic upward spike of crude prices that American Business is not prepared for. The Market is also not prepared for ''any'' downside in the Earnings models of many industries - major Market correction/ recession anyone ? IPAA Estimates * IPAA estimates that since November 1997 when the price of oil began to decline, 136,132 crude oil producing wells have been shut-in. * IPAA estimates that since November 1997 when the price of oil began to decline, 57,958 natural gas producing wells have been shut-in. * IPAA estimates that even if oil prices remain at levels averaging $14 per barrel for another six months, an additional 184,432 crude oil wells will be shut-in. * IPAA estimates that if low oil prices remain at levels averaging $14 for another six months, an additional 23,490 natural gas wells will be shut-in. * Survey results indicate 360,000 barrels of crude oil per day have been lost since November of 1998. Correlating with the 1994 Marginal Well Report by the National Petroleum Council, it appears 2 million barrels per day of crude oil is at risk. * IPAA estimates that 24,415 jobs have been lost since the price decline began in November of 1997. Based on the survey, IPAA estimates that if low oil prices remain at levels averaging $14 per barrel for another six months, an additional 17,279 jobs will be lost. * Based on a RIMS II Economic Multiplier from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, IPAA estimates that more than 68,000 oil and natural gas jobs (20 percent) out of an estimated 338,600 total industry employment could be lost. Keep in mind; the companies that can keep debt/employees and capacity running/managed will be able to positively react to the upside possibilities that this crisis will bring. The low debt construction mfg. companies like FGI GIFI UFAB & Drillers like RIG DO RDC ESV will be able to dramatically benefit to the upside... Kind of like finding ''dirty money'' - but they had no problem taking it from ''us'' on the downside; hence I'll have no problem taking it from ''them'' on the upside... It's coming and ''they'' don't see, or hear it ...

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (36983)	2/7/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider, More on GIFI...... Analyses Support 3Q-4Q/99 Earnings Increase quicken.com IBES estimates Earnings of $.11/1Q, $.21/2Q and $1.17 for FY99. Using these estimates (which have historically been lower than actual results), it appears the present quarter may be the "turning point" toward the glide path back to accelerated growth. If the first half estimates of $.32 is accurate, then $.85 is the forecast for the second half of 1999 or $.43 each for the 3rd and 4th quarters. This is consistent with Mr. Chauvins statement that he sees a pick up in activity later this year and is also consistent with EIA forecasts of increased demand and higher crude and natural gas prices, year over year, in 1999 and 2000. If the Company secures the Petronius replacement contract, the already "decent backlog" (Mr. Chauvins words) would be increased. The Company, along with 3 other engineering firms, are continuing development of the "Men-dock-sp?" project (a deep watet concept) which Mr. Chauvin indicated was a "good, feasible project for the future" that was receiving "worldwide interest and becoming more accepted". While no sells have yet resulted, Mr. Chauvin indicated further engineering refinements (Phase II) were being made, while marketing the concept continues and customer interest has been generated. Patent is pending. He indicated Phase I model testing in Maryland was "real favorable". I would like to know more about this and may send an E-Mail for a more comprehensive brief than that contained in the conference call. The more I examine this company, the better I like it. K