Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (37248)	2/7/1999 1:51:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill: the history charts tell more interesting tales... there's some other echo dates: one corresponding to the top of the nikkei (mid dec?) one in april... I don't have adequate raw data, or I'd try this...there should be "kahuna dates" corresponding to historic highs and lows in various global stock markets, bond markets, commodities, even real estate..where huge sums of money moved at once. --softbank, yahoo, etrade, even msft and intel are japanese "investments". it is clear on intel balance sheet that yen-carry trade is done by intel..internet bubble is japanese bubble IMHO...waiting for something very large to happen so the money can go home. The dow, on the other hand, is the fed proxy for the national debt... it represents "the economy"....it will always go up directly proportional to the amount of tax revenue the government needs to pay its bills...so the money will slosh through the various sectors as convenient, and companies will be added and deleted to make the numbers come out right. devaluation of currencies is a smokescreen..the multinationals all hedge currency trades so "devaluations" reset local real property and salaries to convenient levels, hurts little guy and nonhedged businesses but not the transnationals, used as an "event" to move money with a convenient explanation.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (37248)	2/7/1999 1:59:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I will inject some fundamentals to your commnets. First of all the productivity/employment growth ratio is below 1. We will know for sure by February 9. This will in effect postpone some the perceived inflation pressures, as we are in "full employment" by any historical standards. If my memory serves me right Japan had even a lower unemployment in 1989. As long as more people work and inflation is around 1.5% to 1.75% more money will go into equities. Treasuries are trading at a 3.5% to 3.75% spread above inflation which is very high based on previous spreads. At 4% to 5% inflation we had treasuries trading in the 8% to 10% range or twice inflation. By this theory treasuries should trade around 3.5% to 4% and not 5.25%. It is obvious that if the market will adjust which I do not believe, the stock market may hit the magical 10,000 or more. My take is that treasuries will go up by next week after the auction and the market will recover and quite strongly. The present turmoil is more based on profit taking from ridiculos high prices in tech stocks than in the overall market. In the MDA tread I proposed to insulated the high fliers (MSFT, INTC,CSCO, WCOM, DELL, SUNW, TXN, MOT, IBM, LU,) from the SPX and we are actual in neutral territory. Outside events may turn the tide. Inflation in the US is around 4 to 6 months away. At that time it may show in the statistics. Also keep in mind that most of the stocks on NYSE are in a bear market for over a year by now. We should differenciate between the high fliers and the general market two different stories. As I said before inflation and employment are dirrecting this market. They will change direction by summer. BWDIK Haim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (37248)	2/7/1999 2:25:00 PM
From: Brad Bolen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

I think this is going to be a particularly important week for the market. Specifically, I would watch Lucent and Intel VERY closely...two of the "five horsemen" of the Nasdaq. LU broke its trend first, and now Intel broke it uptrend Friday. LU is now just below its 50 Day MA, and Intel just held its 50 day (barely) on Friday. If these two don't recover a bit from here, I think it will be a useful warning for the whole market. B.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (37248)	2/7/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

You are right. Most of it is greek and I have quite a bit of training in mathematics ... But >>Also, some longer term indicators like stochastics really help. And they currently say there is another couple of weeks to go before any strong move down. << Agrees with what I feel ... a little rebound from the selling last week, probably not to eclipse the top before, then a tech wreck which will also probably see some financials hit pretty hard, too. Good luck with your indicators. I'll go back to lurking mode ... don't forget to get a few DELL puts if that one recovers well in the bounce ...