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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Redman who wrote (36990)	2/7/1999 4:31:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

FGI, GIFI & UFAB - the ''3'' Horsemen .... Sarge, that would be an interesting combo (FGI-GIFI)... how about FGIGIFIUFAB ! I had mispoken in an earlier post, in that FGI & UFAB do have 1998 - 1999 year over year earnings forecasts to actually increase earnings in this historic downturn. GIFI does not; however with their just released earnings report; they have the potential with their backlog to actually do it. With their newly expanded manufacturing capacity, including new acquisitions and a new indoor facility to minimize weather related delays - GIFI is poised to continue to surprise to the upside. If they do get the replacement module contract - they will blow through estimates. What the great news is with GIFI; is that they bounced to $16-18 on the recent cycles of late; given their very, very positive release it is just a matter of time untill GIFI easilly doubles here. GIFI is a legitimate double anytime here - perhaps ''overnight'' if they get the replacement module contract imho. Along with FGI & UFAB who do have substantial year over year -1998-1999 earnings estimates; GIFI joins a triumverate of all most certain ''4 - baggers'' on merely the market assigning these 3 normal PE/Cash Flow valuations. Given these companies high tech engineering/manufacturing & fabrication niches - these 3 companies are simply market anomalies - mispriced mistakes ! In a historic sector downturn; these 3 with low to no debt, strong cash flow and growth positions; have been discounted equal to, or even more than their sector peers. This is a ''mistake.'' One reason is that these 3 companies are new public companies and are micro caps by Institutional standards. They just simply do not even make the radar screens of many Fund and Institutional managers. Small, individual investors have been eaten alive by this sector volatility and short sellers have targeted these small float companies very successfully. However, the upside on these 3 will return and the ''unwinding'' of the short positions and the upside volatility that any cash inflows will do to these small float/volume issues will drive them much quicker than sector peers to the upside imho. It would be hard to find 3 companies with more upside and less downside than these 3 companies. They perhaps have much better pricing control that the drillers, better backlogs on a ''time to completion'' basis vs. drilling contract lengths (other than perhaps RIG) and have better balance sheets than all but a handfull of drillers. Only FLC has perhaps this legitimate and conservative expectation of a ''4-bagger'' type of return and these 3 have much, much, safer downside and much, much, better balance sheets... Not much more needs to be said... ******************************************************************************** FWIW; here is my core holding & watch list - While there are many, many companies deserving in each sector; I find my best results are in minimizing the number of companies and ''concentrating'' my money into just a few companies that I feel will out perform/grow/earn their sector peers. DRILLERS: core hold: RIG SDC (DO is fine here as well - I prefer RIG). watch: FLC PDE & RDC/ESV NE; will add land drillers only upon crude price above $15 - UTI PTEN GENERAL SERVICE/MFG: core hold: RON WFT watch: GLBL VRC NOI DRQ, perhaps IIR MFG/FAB SERVICE: core hold: FGI GIFI UFAB watch: BWG TCMS - perhaps HLX - especially if it lags on an upturn SEISMIC: core: PGO VTS watch: none - the 2 above are so clearly the leaders imho, perhaps Seismic-service co - OMNI DEEPWATER/SUBSEA: - I love this niche ! core: CXIPY SCSWF watch: CDIS OII BOATS: - another sector - only upon $15+ crude core: CKH TDW watch: GMRK HMAR Also; I would add speciality niche company CLB on ''any'' dip under $18 E&P SECTOR: Nat Gas: core: EVER watch: PETD; Large Cap -BR/ NBL, sm/mid cap - MLRC MARY Longshot/Risk plays - RRC and FEN for the true ''gamblers.'' . Balanced Oil/Gas E&P's: core: APA APC - (only on dips), & PZE as the longterm value play. watch: PGEI (micro cap) SGO/OEI good luck all; We have WFT FGI CDIS PGO VRC DRQ OMNI reporting earnings soon. WFT will obviously be a headliner; FGI will raise the roof in the house'' - Guaranteed ! per Redman & others posts - Why hasn't the Street picked up on all the FGI hiring ads....ie: can you say ''backlog'' ! ??? duhhh. When I personally verified this - I bought heavilly into the selloff to $10 & the dip under - a n o m a l y - take 'em when you get them...<VBG>. PS - monday; may be the last ''cheap'' opportunity for PGO - lots of speculation on their delay on an FPSO - it was planned by mgmt - cost delays were overshadowed by the added capacity capability longterm ie: their press release - I'd own/buy it prior to earnings release ...