To: Steve Rolfe who wrote (8431 ) 2/7/1999 5:19:00 PM From: Stephen O'Hara Respond to of 9124
Like I said on the yahoo thread, I think that the 20 level is our support and most posts I read seem to agree we me. Friday, we bounced off that level strong which is a real good sign; however, there normally always is a restest, the classic double bottom. If we double bottom at 20, the TA buffs will jump in and push us back to the 22-24 level in the short term with the strong fundamentals of the industry pushing us back to 30 by the next earnings release. BUT.... I want to caution everyone about one thing. For two years now I've been talking about stocks in related indusries that for some reason or another mirror each other in the direction of their stock price. The two I always talk about are Micron Technology (MU) and Ascend Communications (ASND). When one tanked to 30, the other followed, later one tanked to 21, the other followed, as they recovered to over 30 they would take turns pulling ahead of each other. Now, they both flew to over 70 in the last few months. The new "Tractor Stocks" I've noticed are Quantum and Advanced Mirco Devices. AMD tanks to 12, QNTM tanks to 10 7/8, AMD recovers to 20, QNTM follows. AMD goes to 30, QNTM follows to 29 15/16. AMD gets crushed down to 20 in a few days, QNTM follows. AMD goes to 16.5.... QNTM??????????? Like I said, so far so good with the hold at 20. But I'd really love to see that double bottom before I get comfortable. Is the tech sell-off over? We'll soon see. Another bounce will be from the Clinton scandal rapping up. Once it ends, the market will go up 300-500 points in that week. Steve O'Hara AA BTW DIamond Offshore through all of the oil service disaster has now held 20 many times and is now at 25. The oils look like they are getting ready for a rebound. HUM comes out with earnings this week, consensus is .34 a share. The stock went up last week early then hung in there on bad down days for the overall market; a foreshadow of the earnings announcement to come?