To: freeus who wrote (95835 ) 2/8/1999 12:51:00 AM From: Islander Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Looking for Opportunity in the Parade of Horribles By James J. Cramer 2/8/99 12:15 AM ET Worst case scenario time. Bonds are going to 6%. The Fed screwed up when it eased a third time. The economy is on fire and there is all heck to pay. The techs stink because personal computer sales have turned awful. The speculation in the Net stocks must ruin the market. The rise in Japanese government bond yields spells the death knell for U.S. bonds and equities. Brazil is falling apart and the Mideast will now flair without Hussein. Time to buy the cyclicals because talking heads on TV say the new trend is intact. There are way too many bulls, price-to-earnings multiples are out of control and everyone is complacent and too optimistic except Barton Biggs, Jimmy Rogers and my buddy James Grant. Did I miss anything from the litany? Did I forget anybody in the parade of horribles? Was there something even more rigorous about the bear case that I left out? Nuclear winter? The inability of antibiotics to combat new resistant strains of disease? The 56 card-carrying out-of-wedlock children Clinton fathered who Starr threatens to reveal if we don't crack down on sex in the White House? Yeah, I've heard it all before. Every last bear case. And I keep coming back to the same set of principles, empirical principles, starting with the obvious: I might still be living in my studio apartment with the Murphy Bed off of 44th between First and Second if all I did was believe in the bear case. I might have socked in just enough U.S. government bonds that matured in 2001 to buy a really cool bike or maybe one of those Compaq sub $1,000 jobs. Excuse me for being so cynical, but why should cynicism only be the province of the antibull intelligentsia that surrounds us, infects the media, and, until Rubin and Greenspan, was shared by the government? Does this make me a roaring bull buying everything with my eyes closed? Nah, never confuse stupidity and, here is a loaded word, "foolishness" with prudence. But if I had bought into the bears' litany oh these 20 odd years, I would have passed up on Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) so many times down 17 points from its high that you could have made millions just betting against me. So, this morning I will do what I always do. I will look for dislocations caused by the negativity generated off of last week's intense "bull is over" selloff, and I will swoop in and buy. Whether you do it or not is up to you. But I have to follow what brought me here to begin with: the willingness to take the other side of the trade when everyone has decided that the only thing that works is a couple of integrated oils and a handful of gold stocks. Let the Sirens for cash sing loudly. Hit me with a wave of bearishness from the moment I put the TV on. Heck, get me Whitefish Montana and James Bianco and toss in a hand grenade from some nameless, all-powerful hedge fund that got short and then called CNBC. I'm ready. James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At the time of publication, his fund was long Intel, though positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column by sending a letter to TheStreet.com. TOP