To: JEB who wrote (52959 ) 2/7/1999 6:56:00 PM From: MoneyMade Respond to of 119973
WEEKAHEAD-Emerging market to eye Brazil rollover (If Brasil goes...so does Mexico, some people just don't get it) By Hugh Bronstein NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The rollover of Brazil's internal debt will capture the attention of emerging market bond investors this week, as Latin America's benchmark economy struggles to regain investor confidence, analysts said. About 5.0 billion reais in short-term domestic debt will come due this week, according to government figures. But rollovers have been sluggish in the last three weeks since Brazil adopted a floating exchange rate, prompting a sharp depreciation in the currency, analysts said. Over the last three weeks, Brazil had 25 billion reais maturing, but only 8.8 billion reais was replaced, casting a shadow over the government's ability to finance its fiscal deficit at reasonable interest rate levels, one Wall Street analyst said. Brazil has over 55 billion reais set to mature between now and the end of March, Wall Street sources said. It is important for the government to renew the debt by rolling it over because to pay investors off -- putting billions of reais into circulation in the process -- would risk higher inflation.''Failure to roll this debt over is linked to the possibility of internal debt restructuring, which would presumably be a traumatic event,'' an analyst said. Focus will remain on Brazil's efforts to cut government spending. Such cuts would increase investor confidence, allow interest rates to fall, and make rollovers easier, another analyst said. Peruvian officials are scheduled to be in Washington this week to negotiate for the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) approval of macroeconomic targets that could pave the way for a fresh loan agreement. The government has said it is aiming in the next few months to reach a new accord covering up to three years that could open up $1 billion of credits and send a signal to investors that the country was committed to strict fiscal and monetary policies. ''Although Peru's currency has weakened in the wake of Brazil's devaluation, the country's strong reserve position and its recovering growth prospects make it one of the stronger sovereign credits in the region,'' said Dan Peirce, head of emerging markets research at BancBoston Robertson Stephens. Peru par bonds ended last week unchanged at a bid of 46-1/4, while Brazil C bonds ended down 1-1/8 to bid 55-5/8. Related News Categories: currency, international