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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (476)	2/7/1999 9:37:00 PM
From: Jongmans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

To Dr de Castro, No. You are not right. It will be 100% Besides the issuance of shares to HMR there are two other payments of them: 1 the osteoporosis collaboration. Mr LaMarche told me some weeks ago, that this collaboration continues. 2.the payment to ARIAD by the joint venture, due for services rendered to this joint venture. Half of that is payed effectively by HMR. Total revenue from these sources during the third quarter $ 3,658 mln. In such amount, which will be comparable between Novemmber 12 1998 and February 15 1999, is certainly included the additional needed $ 1,3 mln to make the $ 7mln full. Martin

To: Dr. John M. de Castro who wrote (476)	2/7/1999 10:51:00 PM
From: poodle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

John, Thanks, you initiated very interesting discussion. May be more important, it demonstrated that SI is not completely dead, pleasant news. Ratio of two ways, shorting+conversion+covering/conversion+selling seems to be hard to predict (did anyone try?). TA may help but at this point I do not see any reason to spend time. After I found convertibles deal and then additional convertables in the text I lost any interest to ARIA as a long, and there was no way I could go short. The only reason to follow is to understand this obscure story: why the company with one of the best science in the field, with very good relations with top sci executives, and highly respected by biotech analysts for their science and patents, decided to go into such deal. Another interesting detail, already mentioned by Peter, is extreme complexity of the deal for 5 M. If it's complicated for me, it doesn't really matter, but given Peter's background... It may go below 1$, delisting is long process, so BB risk is relatively distant. There are also recent examples of the "last minute" deals to avoid delisting. As you can imagine, investors are in panic after NASD notification and ... price may go even lower. Regarding argument of your opponents that institutions will NOT short... Can anyone explain WHY NOT? My decision last year, after reading some details, was very simple: do nothing until significant insider buying or any significant new piece of info. Have a nice evening.