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To: Earlie who wrote (42848)	2/7/1999 10:07:00 PM
From: Fabeyes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

>>>> MU would trade in single digits last Summer>>> With debt they have and number shares they have "given" (INTC, TXN) since last summer they should be close to single digits; at least that is what they are worth on paper.

To: Earlie who wrote (42848)	2/8/1999 9:45:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Respond to of 53903

Earlie, What happens to Mu's numbers if 64 chips fall to say $6.00... before the summer ends. Then grab a case of your favorite brewsky, fire up the backyard grill, and get ready for a bull analyst barbeqcue <g> If you want to throw in an ASP of $6 for 3Q, assume 40% bit shipment growth 2Q to 3Q, the 64Mb rev portion would look like: 64 1Q 2Q(E) 3Q(E) 64 Mb(memory) 1901250 2661750 3726450 bit growth 40% 40% units 29.71 41.59 58.22 asp 8.96 9.75 6.00 seq change 8.82% -38.46% 64 Mb revs 266.175 405.50 349.35 seq ch. 52.34% -13.85% The only thing that really tells us is that bit growth can be offset by falling ASP's in this product line (I think I may have seen that in an SEC filing or two <g>). As far as what I threw up yesterday, of which that is a continuation, I just wanted to look at some of the propositions that were being thrown out and do a quick "what if" exercise. My question is what's going to drive the non-64Mb rev. portion to the kind of growth needed to get that 50% sequential rev. number Niles is talking about? The 16Mb is at the end of its life cycle. As far as whatever else they're selling (4Mb, perhaps) those aren't growth areas. That's another question - we know they sell 64's and 16's, but what's happening out there with the old stuff? I focused on the 64's because that's where the interesting stuff is happening for the upcoming Q, but I'd like know more about their other DRAM products. Another thing driving me nuts when I look at the Niles report... Looking at 4Q (and given that he had a month to clean up the data, I'll assume this is as accurate as he can get it), he has them selling 94 mil. 16 Mb units and 23 mil. 64 Mb units. He doesn't shows this on the report, but this why I'm confused. Because I'm going: 16MB X 94 = 1,504 64MB X 23 = 1,472 ------ 2,976 But on his report for total BYTES in millions he has 368. So I'm getting 297.6 against 368, which would mean that somewhere out there, MU's still selling non-16 and non-64 products. If those numbers are right, for 4Q that would mean 19.13% of their total bit shipments came from stuff no one is even talking about. Did I calculate that right when I went "okay 64X23 + ...."? Is there some twist in there that is lost on me? I've been assuming all along that the only difference among "megabit", "bit", "byte" is where you put the decimal place. It that right? Good trading, Tom