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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PAinvestor who wrote (42856)	2/8/1999 10:49:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 53903

PA: Specific numbers, date supplied, name of data supplier would help. I look at plenty of industry stats, and I come to different conclusions. At my end, aside from the industry stats, I look at a few other things. Since PCs soak up the lion's share of semis, I want to know what their supply/demand looks like. It's not pretty. IDC,... "Corporate PC sector saturated...." This is the big fraction of PC sales. They are always optimistic. Nine of the top nine resellers reported crummy numbers and warned of problems ahead. CompUSA, the largest retailer of PCs ....60% down in profits y-o-y and big increase in inventories. Sort of speaks to the retail scene. CPQ,...huge increase in receivables and the whole channel bleating about that company's stuffing. In semi sector itself, Hyundai doubling output over the next few months (as are others) sure suggests no end of supply. L.G Semi,..... the strike is ending. there goes the short term difficulty. MU will spend $1.0 billion to upgrade TXN plants,.....more supply or less? As an aside, I love this move by MU,....take on the excess, low grade production capability that TXN openly told the world was an albatross around its neck. Brilliant. Now the company either spends the billion (thereby giving up its cash cushion and exposing itself to the huge debt bomb) or it just bleeds as it buys expensive chips to sell below cost into a glutted market (the "must buy" contract). They will take the latter course if they have any brains. Why add to the glut? The Semi industry association itself has not put out encouraging forecasts of late, at least as I read them. And at your end? Best, Earlie