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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TechHunter who wrote (6395)	2/10/1999 9:00:00 AM
From: Mark Peterson CPA	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

FYI Double-digit gains in Ciena (CIEN) and Gemstar (GMSTF) provided just enough to keep the Raging Portfolio's streak over the S&P alive – now at 16 weeks in a row. The Raging ended the week down -2.4%, while the benchmark S&P 500 closed down –3.1%. Year to date, the Raging Portfolio is up +22.14% while the S&P is up +1.17%. Click here to see the Raging Portfolio spreadsheet in real-time. After a huge run-up in equity prices during January, investors were quick to take profits last week in high-flying technology stocks. Interest rate sensitive issues were also weak with the 30-year bond rate closing strongly higher on the week, despite the FED's decision not to increase rates or change its non-tightening bias. We're not experts in anything, particularly the bond market, but concerns about inflation are still outlandish in our opinion. The malls are busy, but the world is awash in supply and commodities are basically worthless. More importantly, the Internet is beginning to significantly improve productivity AND take a noticeable chunk out of prices. Just ask the car dealer who had to deal with a customer armed with figures from AutobyTel.com this weekend. Or the consumer, who just bought a $300 eMachine PC. Remember, most bond traders are too busy to get the ‘Net, and the government certainly doesn't have the first clue as to how it should analyze our NEW economy. On Monday, February 1st at 10:15am, we added to our existing 400 share position in Ciena (CIEN) with a new 1,000 share purchase at 20 1/16. This brings our average cost per share up to $18 ¾. Ciena closed the week at $24 1/8, up +20%, after trading heavily all week. Takeover speculation remained rampant. On Friday, Cowen came out and rated the company a “Strong Buy.” This is the first brokerage to upgrade Ciena since it fell into its doldrums last summer. We think this is just the first of many upgrades as Ciena's business revives, new markets are attacked, and it becomes “safe” to own Ciena again. Our 13.8% weighting of Ciena should be indicative of our optimism about this aggressive company. Recent Raging pick, Gemstar (GMSTF), climbed +12% last week after Fortune published a highly favorable piece on this maker of interactive programming technology. Gemstar is another company that we think is relatively undiscovered on the street – this too, should change as analysts and investors understand the incredibly profitable and proprietary nature of Gemstar's business. The rest of the portfolio was awash in red ink with Apple (AAPL), @Home (ATHM), Exodus (EXDS), Intel (INTC), Macromedia (MACR), and Uniphase (UNPH) all registering double digit losses. None of the declines were fundamentally related except Intel and Apple. Intel declined on fears that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is poised to launch a price war. We'll keep you posted. Apple declined yet again last week. The cheap and sub-$500 eMachine has stolen the spotlight in the PC market from Apple in recent days. We remain committed to Apple's renewed vigor and marketing prowess, however, one must question whether there is ANY money to be made in the PC market with prices plummeting. Our patience is waning... NEW BUYS/SELLS After making a slew of trades so far this year, we are going to hold tight for the coming week. Have a Great Week!