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To: Duker who wrote (6803)2/8/1999 3:10:00 PM
From: Sam  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7841
 
<<"The demand for the first month was outstanding."

Does that sound like a company that is going to have flat-ish sequential revenues?>>

Well, the problem is that usually revenues for DD vendors are backend loaded. You can never tell how the Q is really going until that the last 2-3 weeks. That is why everyone was so surprised last Q, demand kept going right into the usually quiet holiday week, and by then the DD cos. were in their quiet period and couldn't tell anyone that things were going well. First month stronger than usual demand is nice, obviously, but it could all evaporate in late March. This is NOT a prediction, just a "Be Careful Out There". Those of us who have followed these companies for awhile know that it doesn't always work out felicitously, and then some who forget about the backend loaded characteristics of the sector are disappointed, to put it mildly.

All that said, the options plays being discussed on the thread may well work. I'm still a little gunshy, would rather play them on some ECMs that I follow, but they are nonetheless "intriguing", as Spock might have said.

s.