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To: DiViT who wrote (2357)	2/10/1999 11:23:00 AM
From: Steve Reinhardt	Respond to of 3493

You must already have seen this, DVD take-off delayed.... Hard Bytes [More Bytes] DVD take-off delayed, says Freeman Associates Gamasutra February 5, 1999 Vol. 3, Issue 5 The annual "Optical Storage Outlook", a report to be released by Freeman Associates in mid-February, predicts DVD computer drives will have a strong impact on sales of other optical storage technologies – but nearly two years later than previously forecast. "Front-end delays in DVD drive availability, coupled with the uncertainty caused by multiple rewritable formats, have inhibited DVD's market debut," claimed Raymond C. Freeman Jr., co-author of the Freeman Report. Robert C. Abraham, the report's co-author, reinforced the message, pointing out that "demand for rewritable CD-RW models is exploding and will not peak until 2001, effectively keeping rewritable DVD at bay until after that time, and even slowing down adoption of DVD-ROM." The authors observe that CD-RW was able to exploit the delay in initial shipments of rewritable DVD drives and establish a strong market position, further inhibiting the short-term shipment prospects of rewritable DVD. Shipments of CD-RW drives surged from 1.25 million units in 1997 to 4.8 million in 1998, whereas rewritable DVD was delayed until 1998, when only 137,000 units shipped. Abraham stated that this volume was only one-third the quantity previously anticipated for 1998. The overall market for optical drives continues to outpace expectations but, not surprisingly, read-only devices give the biggest boost to shipment volumes each year. Rather than DVD-ROM drives, though, CD-ROM drives are still the force behind the growth of the read-only segment. Freeman asserted that "the success of CD-RW encourages continuing loyalty to CD-ROM drives – at DVD-ROM's expense." He continued, "DVD-ROM products shipped 1.1 million units in 1997 and 4.9 million in 1998, less than half the volume previously anticipated." Until rewritable DVD overtakes CD-RW, the prospects for DVD-ROM are dampened as well. The authors contend that DVD's excellent long-term prospects, though pushed back by close to two years, have not dimmed. DVD industry participants are attempting to create a read compatibility specification through OSTA that will allow a drive to read any DVD disc. This effort, if successful, will lead to accelerated demand for DVD products. Pricing for all DVD products, while still high versus CD counterparts, is dropping rapidly and is encouraging consumer adoption of the DVD platform. The 1999 edition of "Optical Storage Outlook" will be released in February by Freeman Associates. The report contains 75 tables and 43 figures and is priced at $2,795. Additional copies for use at the same location are priced at $270 each