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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (1694)	2/8/1999 11:52:00 PM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

Liked the article . I think quite a few points in it would make a good start for a debate as for every possible scenarios, there are other equally plausible ones in contradiction with PEI's... For one thing, if interest rates rise, why would the yen crash? IF we are all in trouble why would we be in more trouble than other world economic wrecks (which may soon include the US as well???)? I know these questions seem naive but as much as economists like to think the world is incredibly chaotic and complicated, common sense is the best recipe for success and common sense is not chaotic or complicated... I am starting to have some problems with though, is (and I am not Japanese , with a name like Gilbert, nor a US citizen for that matter) the never ending "medecine man potions" from Rubin-Greenspan-Summers et al. The day of reckoning in not very far either for them and unfortunately for millions in North and South Am. I would not be surprised at all if they managed to hide their own recklessness and monumental mistakes by blaming it on the Japanese. Not to say that the problems outlined in the article from PEI do not exist, what has been happening in the US, despite every other financial magazines and financial reporting clamoring that Anglo-Saxon capitalism is the best model there is, nonetheless is at best irresponsible, at worst a catastrophe in the making with near criminal implications. The method may differ (than the one used by the Japanese) but the end result may very well be the same. I am definitely starting to believe that there are some universal natural laws which are unescapable... sg

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (1694)	2/15/1999 2:24:00 PM
From: FACTUAL	Respond to of 3902

Do agree with most of the article. As long as the system is not transparent for investors to gauge how their capital is being invested and there is no credible system of feedback based on these transparent results no monetary or fiscal policy will solve the root problems. Of course like any wealthy family that invests its money poorly, generations can pass before bankruptcy. Demographically Japan's biggest problems are likely to be in 2010-2030, where public liabilities will far exceed funds available. All in all I do not know how Japan can solve its problems, but I have not heard a credible solution from anyone including IMF, BOJ, MOF, Rubin et al. Politically this will give rise to instabilty and potentially the rise of the right wing. Shintaro anyone?